Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-09 ]
Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, | 2026-07-07 | 1.0% | — | $14 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…N30 | ||
| Jul 3, | 2026-07-10 | 2.0% | — | $18 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L03 | ||
| Jul 10, | 2026-07-17 | 5.0% | — | $154 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L10 | ||
| Jul 17, | 2026-07-24 | 1.0% | — | $100 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L17 | ||
| Jul 24, | 2026-07-31 | 1.0% | $0 | $329 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L24 | ||
| Jul 31, | 2026-08-07 | 11.0% | $16 | $2.2K | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L31 | ||
| Aug 16, | 2026-08-23 | 68.0% | $23 | $3.3K | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…G16 | ||
| Aug 31, | 2026-09-07 | 81.0% | $152 | $3.2K | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…G31 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | organization | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "organization" sources (1)
- organization venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-18 | 1% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 10, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-13 | 5% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 2% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgemini-gemi35p/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgemini-gemi35p |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgemini-gemi35p") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HCS172JGG4",
"slug": "kxgemini-gemi35p",
"question": "Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-model-release",
"google-gemini",
"large-language-model",
"2026",
"tech-product-launch"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9326,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "organization",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "organization",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}