Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro? [ resolved 2026-08-31 ]
Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 10, 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, | 2026-07-07 | 1.0% | — | $14 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…N30 | ||
| Jul 3, | 2026-07-10 | 2.0% | — | $18 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L03 | ||
| Jul 10, | 2026-07-17 | 5.0% | — | $154 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L10 | ||
| Jul 17, | 2026-07-24 | 1.0% | — | $100 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L17 | ||
| Jul 24, | 2026-07-31 | 1.0% | — | $330 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L24 | ||
| Aug 7, | 2026-08-07 | 0.0% | $1.3K | $1.8K | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…G07 | ||
| Jul 31, | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | — | $296 | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…L31 | ||
| Aug 16, | 2026-08-16 | 0.0% | $5.8K | $45K | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…G16 | ||
| Aug 21, | 2026-08-21 | 0.0% | $1.4K | $2.2K | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…G21 | ||
| Aug 31, | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $3.1K | $40K | C | KXGEMINI-GEM…G31 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | organization | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "organization" sources (1)
organization venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 21, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 7, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 31, 2026? | kalshi | by 2026-08-07 | 1% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 24, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 1% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-18 | 1% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 10, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-13 | 5% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 2% |
| NO | Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Gemini 3.5 Pro by Aug 16 holds above 50% on heavy Kalshi flow 68% · $15K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Gemini 3.5 Pro release before Aug 16 at 68%, market leans toward a near-term Google delivery.
- 45% of all-time volume in 24h is the single largest daily share in this contract's life, a notable conviction signal.
- Surge likely tied to Google announcements, developer leaks, or I/O-adjacent release signals narrowing the window to two weeks.
- Resolves Aug 16; rapid decay window means pricing is highly sensitive to any Google communications this week.
- Odds hold strong on Gemini 3.5 Pro shipping before Aug 31 87% · $22K 24h
- At 87%, Kalshi treats a Gemini 3.5 Pro release before Aug 31, 2026 as near-certain.
- $21K in 24h covers 79% of all-time volume, contract essentially repriced in one session.
- High conviction may reflect a Google announcement or credible product roadmap leak.
- Resolves on confirmed public release of Gemini 3.5 Pro by August 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgemini-gemi35p/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgemini-gemi35p |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgemini-gemi35p") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HCS172JGG4",
"slug": "kxgemini-gemi35p",
"question": "Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"google-gemini",
"ai-models",
"product-release",
"2026",
"software-development"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 89572,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "organization",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "organization",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}