Will the generic ballot show Democrats up or down compared to the previous week's polling from 7/17-7/24? [ resolved 2026-07-24 ]
Above 5.2%
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 5.2% | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $7.0K | $13K | C | KXGENERICBAL…5.2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | VoteHub | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 5.2% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "VoteHub" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- VoteHub source of record venue-listed
- VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Above 5.2% | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgenericballotvotehub-26jul24/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgenericballotvotehub-26jul24 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgenericballotvotehub-26jul24") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GQVPSW58Y6",
"slug": "kxgenericballotvotehub-26jul24",
"question": "Will the generic ballot show Democrats up or down compared to the previous week's polling from 7/17-7/24?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"polling",
"generic-ballot",
"democrats",
"2026-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13496,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "VoteHub",
"resolution_source_url": "https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "VoteHub",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "VoteHub",
"url": "https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}