CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the gold close price be above 4060 USD/t.oz on August 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-08-11 (7D) ]

kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 40 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ $3,860 2026-08-11 99.0%
$724 $724
A KXGOLDD-26AU…860
≥ $3,870 2026-08-11 99.0%
$724 $724
A KXGOLDD-26AU…870
≥ $3,880 2026-08-11 99.0%
$5 $5
A KXGOLDD-26AU…880
≥ $3,890 2026-08-11 99.0%
$10 $10
A KXGOLDD-26AU…890
≥ $3,900 2026-08-11 99.0%
$56 $56
A KXGOLDD-26AU…900
≥ $3,910 2026-08-11 99.0%
$5 $5
A KXGOLDD-26AU…910
≥ $3,920 2026-08-11 99.0%
$35 $35
A KXGOLDD-26AU…920
≥ $3,930 2026-08-11 99.0%
$35 $35
A KXGOLDD-26AU…930
≥ $3,940 2026-08-11 99.0%
$134 $134
A KXGOLDD-26AU…940
≥ $3,950 2026-08-11 99.0%
$161 $161
A KXGOLDD-26AU…950
≥ $3,960 2026-08-11 97.0%
$194 $194
A KXGOLDD-26AU…960
≥ $3,970 2026-08-11 98.0%
$261 $261
A KXGOLDD-26AU…970
≥ $3,980 2026-08-11 99.0%
$834 $834
A KXGOLDD-26AU…980
≥ $3,990 2026-08-11 99.0%
$1.4K $1.4K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…990
≥ $4,000 2026-08-11 99.0%
$1.4K $1.4K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…000
≥ $4,010 2026-08-11 95.0%
$2.5K $2.5K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…010
≥ $4,020 2026-08-11 99.0%
$7.5K $7.5K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…020
≥ $4,030 2026-08-11 99.0%
$6.0K $6.0K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…030
≥ $4,040 2026-08-11 99.0%
$7.6K $7.7K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…040
≥ $4,050 2026-08-11 98.0%
$18K $18K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…050
≥ $4,060 2026-08-11 98.0%
$23K $23K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…060
≥ $4,070 2026-08-11 93.0%
$14K $14K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…070
≥ $4,080 2026-08-11 75.0%
$9.2K $9.2K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…080
≥ $4,090 2026-08-11 48.0%
$9.0K $9.1K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…090
≥ $4,100 2026-08-11 17.0%
$1.6K $1.7K
A KXGOLDD-26AU…100
≥ $4,110 2026-08-11 8.0%
$390 $391
A KXGOLDD-26AU…110
≥ $4,120 2026-08-11 4.0%
$133 $134
A KXGOLDD-26AU…120
≥ $4,130 2026-08-11 4.0%
$50 $50
A KXGOLDD-26AU…130
≥ $4,140 2026-08-11 1.0%
$6 $6
A KXGOLDD-26AU…140
≥ $4,150 2026-08-11 1.0%
$1 $1
A KXGOLDD-26AU…150
≥ $4,160 2026-08-11 1.0%
$1 $1
A KXGOLDD-26AU…160
≥ $4,170 2026-08-11 2.0%
$5 $5
A KXGOLDD-26AU…170
≥ $4,180 2026-08-11 0.0%
A KXGOLDD-26AU…180
≥ $4,190 2026-08-11 0.0%
A KXGOLDD-26AU…190
≥ $4,200 2026-08-11 0.0%
A KXGOLDD-26AU…200
≥ $4,210 2026-08-11 0.0%
A KXGOLDD-26AU…210
≥ $4,220 2026-08-11 24.0%
$60 $60
A KXGOLDD-26AU…220
≥ $4,230 2026-08-11 0.0%
A KXGOLDD-26AU…230
≥ $4,240 2026-08-11 0.0%
A KXGOLDD-26AU…240
≥ $4,250 2026-08-11 0.0%
A KXGOLDD-26AU…250
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Pyth - Gold link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 40 markets · share this text
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXGOLDD, notice id COMMODITIES-bulk-2026-04-14): **Important information:** Effective starting the Thursday, July 30th event, daily Gold markets resolution will transition to a continuous index feed (Metal.Index.GOLD/USD, ID 3153). [END EXCHANGE NOTICE] If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3860 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Pyth - Gold"
sources (2) · single authority
  • Pyth - Gold source of record venue-listed
  • Metal.Index.GOLD/USD from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgoldd-26aug0417/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgoldd-26aug0417
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxgoldd-26aug0417")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5FGB4M3446",
  "slug": "kxgoldd-26aug0417",
  "question": "Will the gold close price be above 4060 USD/t.oz on August 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "gold-price",
    "commodities-futures",
    "spot-price-settlement",
    "august-2026",
    "financial-markets"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 40,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 104928,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Pyth - Gold",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://app.pyth.com/explore/Metal.Index.GOLD%2FUSD?returnUrl=%2Fexplore%3Fstate%3Dstable",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Pyth - Gold",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Pyth - Gold",
      "url": "https://app.pyth.com/explore/Metal.Index.GOLD%2FUSD?returnUrl=%2Fexplore%3Fstate%3Dstable",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Metal.Index.GOLD/USD",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →