Will the gold close price be above 4060 USD/t.oz on August 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-08-11 (7D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 40 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $3,860 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $724 | $724 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…860 | ||
| ≥ $3,870 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $724 | $724 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…870 | ||
| ≥ $3,880 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $5 | $5 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…880 | ||
| ≥ $3,890 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $10 | $10 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…890 | ||
| ≥ $3,900 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $56 | $56 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…900 | ||
| ≥ $3,910 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $5 | $5 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…910 | ||
| ≥ $3,920 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $35 | $35 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…920 | ||
| ≥ $3,930 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $35 | $35 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…930 | ||
| ≥ $3,940 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $134 | $134 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…940 | ||
| ≥ $3,950 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $161 | $161 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…950 | ||
| ≥ $3,960 | 2026-08-11 | 97.0% | $194 | $194 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…960 | ||
| ≥ $3,970 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $261 | $261 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…970 | ||
| ≥ $3,980 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $834 | $834 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…980 | ||
| ≥ $3,990 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $1.4K | $1.4K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…990 | ||
| ≥ $4,000 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $1.4K | $1.4K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…000 | ||
| ≥ $4,010 | 2026-08-11 | 95.0% | $2.5K | $2.5K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…010 | ||
| ≥ $4,020 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $7.5K | $7.5K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…020 | ||
| ≥ $4,030 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $6.0K | $6.0K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…030 | ||
| ≥ $4,040 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $7.6K | $7.7K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…040 | ||
| ≥ $4,050 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $18K | $18K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…050 | ||
| ≥ $4,060 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $23K | $23K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…060 | ||
| ≥ $4,070 | 2026-08-11 | 93.0% | $14K | $14K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…070 | ||
| ≥ $4,080 | 2026-08-11 | 75.0% | $9.2K | $9.2K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…080 | ||
| ≥ $4,090 | 2026-08-11 | 48.0% | $9.0K | $9.1K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…090 | ||
| ≥ $4,100 | 2026-08-11 | 17.0% | $1.6K | $1.7K | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…100 | ||
| ≥ $4,110 | 2026-08-11 | 8.0% | $390 | $391 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…110 | ||
| ≥ $4,120 | 2026-08-11 | 4.0% | $133 | $134 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…120 | ||
| ≥ $4,130 | 2026-08-11 | 4.0% | $50 | $50 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…130 | ||
| ≥ $4,140 | 2026-08-11 | 1.0% | $6 | $6 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…140 | ||
| ≥ $4,150 | 2026-08-11 | 1.0% | $1 | $1 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…150 | ||
| ≥ $4,160 | 2026-08-11 | 1.0% | $1 | $1 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…160 | ||
| ≥ $4,170 | 2026-08-11 | 2.0% | $5 | $5 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…170 | ||
| ≥ $4,180 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…180 | ||
| ≥ $4,190 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…190 | ||
| ≥ $4,200 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…200 | ||
| ≥ $4,210 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…210 | ||
| ≥ $4,220 | 2026-08-11 | 24.0% | $60 | $60 | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…220 | ||
| ≥ $4,230 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…230 | ||
| ≥ $4,240 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…240 | ||
| ≥ $4,250 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXGOLDD-26AU…250 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Pyth - Gold | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXGOLDD, notice id COMMODITIES-bulk-2026-04-14):
**Important information:** Effective starting the Thursday, July 30th event, daily Gold markets resolution will transition to a continuous index feed (Metal.Index.GOLD/USD, ID 3153).
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3860 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Pyth - Gold" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Pyth - Gold source of record venue-listed
- Metal.Index.GOLD/USD from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgoldd-26aug0417/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgoldd-26aug0417 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgoldd-26aug0417") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5FGB4M3446",
"slug": "kxgoldd-26aug0417",
"question": "Will the gold close price be above 4060 USD/t.oz on August 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"gold-price",
"commodities-futures",
"spot-price-settlement",
"august-2026",
"financial-markets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 40,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 104928,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Pyth - Gold",
"resolution_source_url": "https://app.pyth.com/explore/Metal.Index.GOLD%2FUSD?returnUrl=%2Fexplore%3Fstate%3Dstable",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Pyth - Gold",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Pyth - Gold",
"url": "https://app.pyth.com/explore/Metal.Index.GOLD%2FUSD?returnUrl=%2Fexplore%3Fstate%3Dstable",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Metal.Index.GOLD/USD",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}