Will the gold close price be above 4011.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-09-07 (34D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 40 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $3,252 | 2026-09-07 | 99.0% | — | $198 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,292 | 2026-09-07 | 99.0% | — | $198 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,332 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,372 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,412 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,452 | 2026-09-07 | 99.0% | — | $2.0K | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,492 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,532 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,572 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,612 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,652 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,692 | 2026-09-07 | 90.0% | — | $89 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,732 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,772 | 2026-09-07 | 92.0% | $1.0K | $1.3K | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,812 | 2026-09-07 | 79.0% | — | $77 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,852 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,892 | 2026-09-07 | 78.0% | — | $78 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,932 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,972 | 2026-09-07 | 63.0% | — | $17 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,012 | 2026-09-07 | 54.0% | $127 | $2.5K | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,052 | 2026-09-07 | 50.0% | $19 | $224 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,092 | 2026-09-07 | 51.0% | $28 | $77 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,132 | 2026-09-07 | 41.0% | $70 | $128 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,172 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,212 | 2026-09-07 | 30.0% | — | $48 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,252 | 2026-09-07 | 18.0% | $18 | $30 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,292 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,332 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,372 | 2026-09-07 | 9.0% | — | $0 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,412 | 2026-09-07 | 11.0% | $5 | $23 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,452 | 2026-09-07 | 5.0% | — | $0 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,492 | 2026-09-07 | 9.0% | — | $32 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,532 | 2026-09-07 | 2.0% | — | $2 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,572 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,612 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,652 | 2026-09-07 | 7.0% | — | $0 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,692 | 2026-09-07 | 3.0% | — | $0 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,732 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,772 | 2026-09-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,812 | 2026-09-07 | 2.0% | — | $0 | C | KXGOLDMON-26….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Pyth - Gold | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXGOLDMON, notice id COMMODITIES-bulk-2026-04-14):
**Important information:** Effective starting the conclusion of Friday, July 31st event, monthly Gold markets resolution will transition to a continuous index feed (Metal.Index.GOLD/USD, ID 3153).
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3251.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Pyth - Gold" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Pyth - Gold source of record venue-listed
- Metal.Index.GOLD/USD from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgoldmon-26aug3117/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgoldmon-26aug3117 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgoldmon-26aug3117") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SQ3CSQLZF7",
"slug": "kxgoldmon-26aug3117",
"question": "Will the gold close price be above 4011.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"gold-price",
"commodities",
"financial-markets",
"spot-price",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 40,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7073,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [
"exchange_notice_source_conflict"
],
"resolution_source": "Pyth - Gold",
"resolution_source_url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Pyth - Gold",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Pyth - Gold",
"url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Metal.Index.GOLD/USD",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}