CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the gold close price be above 4011.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-09-07 (34D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 40 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ $3,252 2026-09-07 99.0%
$198
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,292 2026-09-07 99.0%
$198
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,332 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,372 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,412 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,452 2026-09-07 99.0%
$2.0K
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,492 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,532 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,572 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,612 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,652 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,692 2026-09-07 90.0%
$89
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,732 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,772 2026-09-07 92.0%
$1.0K $1.3K
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,812 2026-09-07 79.0%
$77
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,852 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,892 2026-09-07 78.0%
$78
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,932 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $3,972 2026-09-07 63.0%
$17
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,012 2026-09-07 54.0%
$127 $2.5K
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,052 2026-09-07 50.0%
$19 $224
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,092 2026-09-07 51.0%
$28 $77
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,132 2026-09-07 41.0%
$70 $128
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,172 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,212 2026-09-07 30.0%
$48
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,252 2026-09-07 18.0%
$18 $30
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,292 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,332 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,372 2026-09-07 9.0%
$0
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,412 2026-09-07 11.0%
$5 $23
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,452 2026-09-07 5.0%
$0
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,492 2026-09-07 9.0%
$32
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,532 2026-09-07 2.0%
$2
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,572 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,612 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,652 2026-09-07 7.0%
$0
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,692 2026-09-07 3.0%
$0
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,732 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,772 2026-09-07 0.0%
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
≥ $4,812 2026-09-07 2.0%
$0
C KXGOLDMON-26….99
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Pyth - Gold link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 40 markets · share this text
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXGOLDMON, notice id COMMODITIES-bulk-2026-04-14): **Important information:** Effective starting the conclusion of Friday, July 31st event, monthly Gold markets resolution will transition to a continuous index feed (Metal.Index.GOLD/USD, ID 3153). [END EXCHANGE NOTICE] If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3251.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Pyth - Gold"
sources (2) · single authority
  • Pyth - Gold source of record venue-listed
  • Metal.Index.GOLD/USD from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgoldmon-26aug3117/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgoldmon-26aug3117
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxgoldmon-26aug3117")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SQ3CSQLZF7",
  "slug": "kxgoldmon-26aug3117",
  "question": "Will the gold close price be above 4011.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "gold-price",
    "commodities",
    "financial-markets",
    "spot-price",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 40,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 7073,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "exchange_notice_source_conflict"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Pyth - Gold",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Pyth - Gold",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Pyth - Gold",
      "url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Metal.Index.GOLD/USD",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →