CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the gold close price be above 3764.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-08-14 (10D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 40 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ $3,705 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,725 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,745 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,765 2026-08-14 99.0%
$2.9K
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,785 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,805 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,825 2026-08-14 97.0%
$2.5K
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,845 2026-08-14 97.0%
$260
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,865 2026-08-14 96.0%
$5 $86
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,885 2026-08-14 94.0%
$8 $800
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,905 2026-08-14 94.0%
$9 $103
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,925 2026-08-14 96.0%
$374 $433
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,945 2026-08-14 86.0%
$48 $143
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,965 2026-08-14 80.0%
$450 $530
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $3,985 2026-08-14 80.0%
$854 $938
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,005 2026-08-14 66.0%
$415 $481
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,025 2026-08-14 78.0%
$826 $924
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,045 2026-08-14 71.0%
$1.3K $1.5K
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,065 2026-08-14 63.0%
$845 $1.1K
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,085 2026-08-14 54.0%
$1.1K $1.3K
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,105 2026-08-14 37.0%
$587 $722
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,125 2026-08-14 20.0%
$2 $49
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,145 2026-08-14 22.0%
$15 $42
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,165 2026-08-14 15.0%
$5 $22
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,185 2026-08-14 10.0%
$1 $11
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,205 2026-08-14 7.0%
$6 $137
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,225 2026-08-14 8.0%
$8
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,245 2026-08-14 5.0%
$5
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,265 2026-08-14 2.0%
$0 $2
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,285 2026-08-14 2.0%
$2 $2
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,305 2026-08-14 1.0%
$0 $1
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,325 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,345 2026-08-14 1.0%
$10
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,365 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,385 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,405 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,425 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,445 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,465 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
≥ $4,485 2026-08-14 0.0%
C KXGOLDW-26AU….99
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Pyth - Gold link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 40 markets · share this text
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXGOLDW, notice id COMMODITIES-bulk-2026-04-14): **Important information:** Effective starting the conclusion of Friday, July 31st event, weekly Gold markets resolution will transition to a continuous index feed (Metal.Index.GOLD/USD, ID 3153). [END EXCHANGE NOTICE] If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3704.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Pyth - Gold"
sources (2) · single authority
  • Pyth - Gold source of record venue-listed
  • Metal.Index.GOLD/USD from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgoldw-26aug0717/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgoldw-26aug0717
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxgoldw-26aug0717")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7GJL5NYRS6",
  "slug": "kxgoldw-26aug0717",
  "question": "Will the gold close price be above 3764.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "gold-price",
    "precious-metals",
    "commodities",
    "spot-price",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 40,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 14862,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "exchange_notice_source_conflict"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Pyth - Gold",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Pyth - Gold",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Pyth - Gold",
      "url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Metal.Index.GOLD/USD",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →