Will the gold close price be above 3764.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-08-14 (10D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 40 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $3,705 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,725 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,745 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,765 | 2026-08-14 | 99.0% | — | $2.9K | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,785 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,805 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,825 | 2026-08-14 | 97.0% | — | $2.5K | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,845 | 2026-08-14 | 97.0% | — | $260 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,865 | 2026-08-14 | 96.0% | $5 | $86 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,885 | 2026-08-14 | 94.0% | $8 | $800 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,905 | 2026-08-14 | 94.0% | $9 | $103 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,925 | 2026-08-14 | 96.0% | $374 | $433 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,945 | 2026-08-14 | 86.0% | $48 | $143 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,965 | 2026-08-14 | 80.0% | $450 | $530 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $3,985 | 2026-08-14 | 80.0% | $854 | $938 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,005 | 2026-08-14 | 66.0% | $415 | $481 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,025 | 2026-08-14 | 78.0% | $826 | $924 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,045 | 2026-08-14 | 71.0% | $1.3K | $1.5K | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,065 | 2026-08-14 | 63.0% | $845 | $1.1K | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,085 | 2026-08-14 | 54.0% | $1.1K | $1.3K | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,105 | 2026-08-14 | 37.0% | $587 | $722 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,125 | 2026-08-14 | 20.0% | $2 | $49 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,145 | 2026-08-14 | 22.0% | $15 | $42 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,165 | 2026-08-14 | 15.0% | $5 | $22 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,185 | 2026-08-14 | 10.0% | $1 | $11 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,205 | 2026-08-14 | 7.0% | $6 | $137 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,225 | 2026-08-14 | 8.0% | — | $8 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,245 | 2026-08-14 | 5.0% | — | $5 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,265 | 2026-08-14 | 2.0% | $0 | $2 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,285 | 2026-08-14 | 2.0% | $2 | $2 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,305 | 2026-08-14 | 1.0% | $0 | $1 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,325 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,345 | 2026-08-14 | 1.0% | — | $10 | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,365 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,385 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,405 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,425 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,445 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,465 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 | ||
| ≥ $4,485 | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXGOLDW-26AU….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Pyth - Gold | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXGOLDW, notice id COMMODITIES-bulk-2026-04-14):
**Important information:** Effective starting the conclusion of Friday, July 31st event, weekly Gold markets resolution will transition to a continuous index feed (Metal.Index.GOLD/USD, ID 3153).
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3704.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Pyth - Gold" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Pyth - Gold source of record venue-listed
- Metal.Index.GOLD/USD from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgoldw-26aug0717/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgoldw-26aug0717 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgoldw-26aug0717") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7GJL5NYRS6",
"slug": "kxgoldw-26aug0717",
"question": "Will the gold close price be above 3764.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"gold-price",
"precious-metals",
"commodities",
"spot-price",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 40,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14862,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [
"exchange_notice_source_conflict"
],
"resolution_source": "Pyth - Gold",
"resolution_source_url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Pyth - Gold",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Pyth - Gold",
"url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Metal.Index.GOLD/USD",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}