CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Republicans hold primaries for Senate seats in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]

Will at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
kalshi 1 market
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 5 2026-11-03 78.0%
$11 $25K
A KXGOPSENATEP…V03
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff The Source Agencies are not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 1 market · share this text
If at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, then the market resolves to Yes. This market does NOT require all specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. Instead, it requires a specified subset of outcomes to occur for a Yes resolution. If the specified condition is not met, the entire market resolves to No. This market uses SENATEPARTYNOM to determine primary winners and is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Source Agencies are"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgopsenateprimarycombo-26nov03/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgopsenateprimarycombo-26nov03.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxgopsenateprimarycombo-26nov03")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-02V3115SG6",
  "slug": "kxgopsenateprimarycombo-26nov03",
  "question": "Will Republicans hold primaries for Senate seats in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2026-senate-primaries",
    "republican-politics",
    "multi-candidate-combo",
    "us-elections",
    "primary-outcomes"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 24819,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 86,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "The Source Agencies are",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →