Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary? [ resolved 2026-09-01 ]
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-08-19 | 100.0% | $10 | $7.1K | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…BEG | ||
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-08-19 | 100.0% | $97 | $13K | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…KRE | ||
| Bernadette Wilson · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-08-26 | 100.0% | $17 | $5.3K | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…WIL | ||
| Dave Bronson · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-08-29 | 100.0% | $32 | $3.9K | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…BRO | ||
| Click Bishop · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $15 | $2.8K | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…BIS | ||
| Nancy Dahlstrom · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $249 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…DAH | ||
| Edna DeVries · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $72 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…DEV | ||
| Adam Crum · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $115 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…CRU | ||
| Treg Taylor · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $119 | $5.4K | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…TAY | ||
| Mary Peltola · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $143 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…PEL | ||
| Shelley Hughes · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $0 | $131 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…HUG | ||
| Matt Heilala · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $25 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…HEI | ||
| Matthew Claman · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $335 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…CLA | ||
| Lisa Murkowski · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $45 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…MUR | ||
| Bill Walker · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $17 | $1.3K | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…WAL | ||
| Lesil McGuire · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $12 | A | KXGOVAKPRIMA…CMG |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Click Bishop advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" sources (7) · stated precedence rule
relevant county clerk or board of elections venue-listed Attorney General of the United States venue-listed relevant city/municipal clerk venue-listed in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer venue-listed the Federal Election Commission venue-listed state board of elections or canvassing board venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| YES | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-08-29 | 100% |
| YES | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-08-26 | 100% |
| YES | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
| YES | Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (16 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Buyers back the Alaska governor primary favorite at 84% 84% · $36K 24h
- 84% price reflects strong consensus around a single front-runner in Alaska's top-four gubernatorial primary.
- Kalshi sees $36K in 24h, equal to 40% of all-time volume, meaningful liquidity for a state-level race.
- Fresh volume at 84% suggests the field has narrowed and traders are pricing out remaining challengers.
- Resolves on the Alaska primary election result.
- Alaska top-four governor primary winner priced as certain 100% · $40K 24h
- One candidate priced at 100% to advance from Alaska's top-four gubernatorial primary on Kalshi.
- $40K in 24h is 69% of all-time volume, the single largest session by share for this contract.
- Alaska's August primary calendar and today's date suggest results are driving the certainty print.
- Resolves on official Alaska Division of Elections certifying the top-four primary results.
- Second Alaska governor primary outcome holds at 91% 91% · $38K 24h
- A separate Alaska top-four governor primary outcome contract prices at 91%, strong but not certain.
- $38K in 24h is 71% of all-time volume for this contract, the highest single-day share of any spike here.
- The 9% discount alongside near-total volume concentration suggests a contested or close individual slot.
- Resolves on Alaska's certified top-four primary list, likely a specific candidate's advancement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovakprimary-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovakprimary-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovakprimary-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D03FJ4YFW7",
"slug": "kxgovakprimary-26",
"question": "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"alaska-governor",
"primary-election",
"2026",
"top-four-primary",
"us-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39954,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Attorney General of the United States",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}