Will California's Governor primary advance candidates from (Party) to the general election? [ resolved 2026-06-10 ]
Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 3 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Republicans · Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor? | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | $104 | $390 | A | KXGOVCAPRIMA…-2R | ||
| Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | $74K | $171K | A | KXGOVCAPRIMA…D1R | ||
| 2 Democrats · Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor? | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $12K | $33K | A | KXGOVCAPRIMA…-2D |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If 2 Democrats advance to the general election for California Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| YES | Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
| NO | Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- California governor primary advance nears full pricing Kalshi 83%
- Kalshi prices 83% on California's governor primary advancing candidates from a given party to the general election, consistent with confirmed results.
- Becerra's confirmed advance to November is the news catalyst, with the market price reflecting the primary outcome already playing out.
- The 17% residual likely reflects edge cases around independent candidates or contested outcomes that could complicate party-advance resolution.
- Kalshi resolves via the relevant county clerk or board of elections official certification of primary results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovcaprimaryparty-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovcaprimaryparty-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovcaprimaryparty-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3RZZ2YZCH3",
"slug": "kxgovcaprimaryparty-26",
"question": "Will California's Governor primary advance candidates from (Party) to the general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"gubernatorial-primary",
"top-two-primary",
"2027-election",
"political-advancement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 203798,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}