Will the Colorado Republican Party nominate a governor candidate by the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-11 ]
Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Marx | 2026-07-09 | 100.0% | $224 | $17K | A | KXGOVCONOMR-…MAR | ||
| Barbara Kirkmeyer | 2026-07-09 | 0.0% | $10 | $3.4K | A | KXGOVCONOMR-…KIR | ||
| Scott Bottoms | 2026-11-03 | 8.9% | — | $975 | A | KXGOVCONOMR-…BOT | ||
| Greg Lopez | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXGOVCONOMR-…LOP | ||
| Mark Baisley | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXGOVCONOMR-…BAI | ||
| Jason Mikesell | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVCONOMR-…MIK | ||
| Jason Ray Clark | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVCONOMR-26-JRC | ||
| Joshua Griffin | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVCONOMR-…GRI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Barbara Kirkmeyer wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Colorado Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (1) · single authority
- Republican Party source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Barbara Kirkmeyer be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado? | kalshi | 2026-07-09 | 0% |
| YES | Will Victor Marx be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado? | kalshi | 2026-07-09 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Victor Marx GOP Colorado governor nomination sits near certainty 96% · $145K 24h
- 96% price reflects near-unanimous market conviction that Marx locks up the Republican Colorado governor nomination.
- $145K in 24h, 33% of all-time Kalshi volume, indicates fresh informed capital entering, not just noise.
- Surge likely follows a primary filing deadline, candidate dropout, or delegate count update confirming Marx's lead.
- Resolution tied to the Republican primary outcome; thin residual 4% covers spoiler or procedural risk.
- Capital defends Victor Marx as Colorado GOP frontrunner 57% · $126K 24h
- Kalshi prices Marx as a slight favorite at 57% for the Colorado Republican gubernatorial nomination.
- $126K in 24h equals 71% of all-time contract volume, near-total history in one session.
- Spike coincides with primary calendar pressure; Colorado GOP nomination race entering decisive phase.
- Thin all-time liquidity means price is highly sensitive to new entrants and polling shifts.
- Kirkmeyer flows challenge Marx's Colorado GOP lead 45% · $92K 24h
- Kalshi prices Kirkmeyer at 45%, a narrow underdog to Marx but within striking distance.
- $92K in 24h is 73% of all-time volume, mirroring the Marx contract's simultaneous surge.
- Paired volume spikes on both contracts signal a binary primary race crystallizing around two candidates.
- Marx 57% vs. Kirkmeyer 45% implies thin residual probability for any other entrant.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovconomr-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovconomr-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovconomr-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3X1XZGV3C4",
"slug": "kxgovconomr-26",
"question": "Will the Colorado Republican Party nominate a governor candidate by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"colorado-politics",
"republican-primary",
"gubernatorial-race",
"2027-election",
"us-governor-nominee"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20947,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}