Will Ron DeSantis be the Florida Republican Governor nominee by 2026? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | 2026-08-19 | 100.0% | $202K | $1.80M | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD | ||
| James Fishback | 2026-11-03 | 2.4% | $11K | $251K | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-…FIS | ||
| Jay Collins | 2026-11-03 | 0.4% | $2.0K | $8.9K | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-…COL | ||
| Paul Renner | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $211 | $1.6K | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-…REN | ||
| Wilton Simpson | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $96 | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-26-WS | ||
| Matt Gaetz | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $122 | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-26-MG | ||
| Jimmy Patronis | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $7 | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JP | ||
| Casey DeSantis | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $0 | $337 | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-…DES | ||
| Charles Burkett | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $177 | B | KXGOVFLNOMR-…BUR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Byron Donalds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (1) · single authority
Republican Party committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Donalds FL GOP nod priced as settled at 99% 99% · $2.1M 24h
- Kalshi prices Donalds at 99%, market treats the Republican nomination as a near-certainty.
- 28% of all-time volume hit in 24h ($2.1M), signaling a decisive positioning event.
- Surge likely tied to primary results or filing deadlines collapsing remaining uncertainty.
- Resolves on official GOP nominee certification for Florida governor race.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovflnomr-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovflnomr-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovflnomr-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8WBM80ZB13",
"slug": "kxgovflnomr-26",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis be the Florida Republican Governor nominee by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"florida-politics",
"2026-election",
"republican-nominee",
"governor-race",
"us-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2064697,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}