Will Ron DeSantis be the Florida Republican Governor nominee by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | 2026-11-03 | 93.9% | $12K | $633K | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD | ||
| James Fishback | 2026-11-03 | 5.9% | $2.5K | $247K | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-…FIS | ||
| Jay Collins | 2026-11-03 | 1.7% | $115 | $6.0K | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-…COL | ||
| Casey DeSantis | 2026-11-03 | 0.6% | $39 | $1.3K | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-…DES | ||
| Paul Renner | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $14 | $213 | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-…REN | ||
| Wilton Simpson | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $86 | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-26-WS | ||
| Matt Gaetz | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $18 | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-26-MG | ||
| Jimmy Patronis | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2 | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JP | ||
| Charles Burkett | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXGOVFLNOMR-…BUR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Byron Donalds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (1) · single authority
- Republican Party source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovflnomr-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovflnomr-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovflnomr-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8WBM80ZB13",
"slug": "kxgovflnomr-26",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis be the Florida Republican Governor nominee by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"florida-politics",
"2026-election",
"republican-nominee",
"governor-race",
"us-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 887052,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}