Who will be the Michigan Republican Governor nominee by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John James | 2026-11-03 | 56.0% | $21 | $60K | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-JJ | ||
| Perry Johnson | 2026-11-03 | 35.0% | — | $33K | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-PJ | ||
| Mike Cox | 2026-11-03 | 2.2% | — | $399 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-MC | ||
| Tudor Dixon | 2026-11-03 | 1.7% | — | $24 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-TD | ||
| Mike Rogers | 2026-11-03 | 1.2% | — | $20 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-MR | ||
| Aric Nesbitt | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-AN | ||
| Jonathan Lindsey | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-JL | ||
| Dick DeVos | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-DD | ||
| Pete Hoekstra | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-PH | ||
| Tom Leonard | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-TL | ||
| Lisa McClain | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-LM | ||
| Peter Meijer | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-PM | ||
| Candice Miller | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-CM | ||
| Kevin Rinke | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-KR | ||
| Garrett Soldano | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXGOVMINOMR-26-GS |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Aric Nesbitt wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Michigan Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (1) · single authority
- Republican Party source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- John James Michigan GOP nominee status draws conviction bids 84% · $102K 24h
- 84% reflects strong market confidence that John James secures the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Michigan.
- Kalshi records $102K in 24h, 38% of all-time volume, a notable single-session concentration.
- Fresh flow at an elevated price suggests a primary catalyst, filing deadline, poll, or endorsement, is sharpening resolution odds.
- Resolves on official Republican nomination outcome in Michigan.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovminomr-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovminomr-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovminomr-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-88B3W00208",
"slug": "kxgovminomr-26",
"question": "Who will be the Michigan Republican Governor nominee by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"michigan-politics",
"2026-election",
"republican-nomination",
"gubernatorial-race",
"us-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 93321,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}