Will Tim Walz be the Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee by 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-12 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Klobuchar | 2026-08-12 | 100.0% | — | $133K | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…KLO | ||
| Tim Walz | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $269 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…WAL | ||
| Bill Gates Jr. | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $7 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…GAT | ||
| Keith Ellison | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $17 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…ELL | ||
| Steve Simon | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $31 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…SIM | ||
| Jacob Frey | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $11 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…FRE | ||
| Melvin Carter | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…CAR | ||
| Bobby Joe Champion | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $1 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…JCH | ||
| Erin Murphy | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $4 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…MUR | ||
| Dean Phillips | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $10 | C | KXGOVMNNOMD-…PHI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Tim Walz wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Minnesota Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (1)
Republican Party venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Tim Walz be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| YES | Will Amy Klobuchar be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 100% |
| NO | Will Bill Gates Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Keith Ellison be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Simon be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jacob Frey be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Melvin Carter be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Bobby Joe Champion be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Erin Murphy be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dean Phillips be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovmnnomd-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovmnnomd-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovmnnomd-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DS4Y103CJ0",
"slug": "kxgovmnnomd-26",
"question": "Will Tim Walz be the Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"minnesota-politics",
"2027-election",
"democratic-nominee",
"gubernatorial-race",
"us-primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 133538,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 17,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}