CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Government spending decrease, before March 2027 [ resolves 2027-03-31 (301D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 6 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 50 2027-03-31 4.3%
$0 $136
A KXGOVTCUTS-2…ONB
≥ 250 2027-03-31 5.4%
$4.9K
A KXGOVTCUTS-26-250
≥ 500 2027-03-31 5.2%
$1.9K
A KXGOVTCUTS-26-500
≥ 750 2027-03-31 3.6%
$869
A KXGOVTCUTS-26-750
≥ 1,000 2027-03-31 2.8%
$678
A KXGOVTCUTS-26-1000
≥ 2,000 2027-03-31 1.0%
$181
A KXGOVTCUTS-26-2000
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff fred.stlouisfed.org link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 6 markets · share this text
If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2026 is compared against Q4 2024.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "fred.stlouisfed.org"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovtcuts-26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovtcuts-26.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxgovtcuts-26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BYVFPZ6WJ8",
  "slug": "kxgovtcuts-26",
  "question": "Government spending decrease, before March 2027",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "government-spending",
    "trump-administration",
    "fiscal-policy",
    "quantitative-outcome"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 8653,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →