Government spending decrease, before March 2027 [ resolves 2027-03-31 (268D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 2027-03-31 | 9.9% | $2 | $587 | A | KXGOVTCUTS-2…ONB | ||
| 250 | 2027-03-31 | 5.5% | $7 | $5.1K | A | KXGOVTCUTS-26-250 | ||
| 500 | 2027-03-31 | 5.2% | — | $1.9K | A | KXGOVTCUTS-26-500 | ||
| 750 | 2027-03-31 | 3.6% | — | $869 | A | KXGOVTCUTS-26-750 | ||
| 1000 | 2027-03-31 | 5.6% | — | $1.4K | A | KXGOVTCUTS-26-1000 | ||
| 2000 | 2027-03-31 | 5.1% | — | $923 | A | KXGOVTCUTS-26-2000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | FRED | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2026 is compared against Q4 2024.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "FRED" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- FRED source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovtcuts-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovtcuts-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovtcuts-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BYVFPZ6WJ8",
"slug": "kxgovtcuts-26",
"question": "Government spending decrease, before March 2027",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"government-spending",
"trump-administration",
"fiscal-policy",
"quantitative-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10776,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "FRED",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "FRED",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "FRED",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}