Will there be a government shutdown on October 1, 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-02 (59D) ]
Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026 | 2026-10-02 | 20.0% | $2.1K | $24K | C | KXGOVTSHUTDO…T01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Office of Management and Budget | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026
OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations
Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Office of Management and Budget" ↗ sources (4) · single authority
Office of Management and Budget committed source United States Office of Personnel Management venue-listed OMB releases a formal directive from rules text OPM posts a current operating status from rules text
recent wire items
- Government shutdown on October 1 stays a very long shot Kalshi 3%
- The Kalshi contract on a government shutdown beginning October 1 sits at just 3%, near-zero odds.
- The House passage of a CR through December 11 directly resolves the near-term shutdown risk; the Kalshi price is consistent with the legislative outcome.
- The funding patch delays the next deadline to mid-December, shifting any shutdown risk well past the November midterms.
- Resolution source is the Office of Management and Budget; the contract settles on whether agencies actually lose funding on October 1, not on Congressional vote outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovtshutdown-26oct01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovtshutdown-26oct01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovtshutdown-26oct01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TMV1LTRGY0",
"slug": "kxgovtshutdown-26oct01",
"question": "Will there be a government shutdown on October 1, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-government-shutdown",
"fiscal-policy",
"political-gridlock",
"congress-budget",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24396,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Office of Management and Budget",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Office of Management and Budget",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Office of Management and Budget",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "United States Office of Personnel Management",
"url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "OMB releases a formal directive",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "OPM posts a current operating status",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}