Will a Democrat be nominated as Vermont's gubernatorial nominee by the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aly Richards | 2026-11-03 | 74.0% | $656 | $4.5K | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…RIC | ||
| Amanda Janoo | 2026-11-03 | 30.0% | $5 | $2.1K | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…JAN | ||
| Mike Pieciak | 2026-11-03 | 2.9% | — | $206 | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…PIE | ||
| Esther Charlestin | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…CHA | ||
| Charity Clark | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $7 | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…CLA | ||
| David Zuckerman | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…ZUC | ||
| Becca Balint | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…BAL | ||
| Phil Baruth | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…BAR | ||
| Jill Krowinski | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXGOVVTNOMD-…KRO |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Esther Charlestin wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (1)
- Republican Party venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovvtnomd-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovvtnomd-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovvtnomd-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2H8QRR5KB5",
"slug": "kxgovvtnomd-26",
"question": "Will a Democrat be nominated as Vermont's gubernatorial nominee by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"vermont-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"gubernatorial-nomination",
"2027-election",
"nominee-selection"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6825,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 17,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}