Will a Wisconsin Democratic Governor be nominated by the 2026 election? [ resolved 2026-08-12 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Crowley | 2026-08-12 | 100.0% | $2.5K | $49K | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…CRO | ||
| Tony Evers | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $14 | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…EVE | ||
| Josh Kaul | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $108 | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…KAU | ||
| Mandela Barnes | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | $1 | $706 | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…BAR | ||
| Francesca Hong | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | $53K | $869K | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…HON | ||
| Missy Hughes | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…HUG | ||
| Brett Hulsey | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $6 | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…HUL | ||
| Kelda Roys | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | $44 | $1.1K | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…ROY | ||
| Sara Rodriguez | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $742 | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…ROD | ||
| Ben Wikler | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…WIK | ||
| Joel Brennan | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | $10 | $221 | C | KXGOVWINOMD-…BRE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Tony Evers wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Wisconsin Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (1)
Republican Party venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Tony Evers be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Josh Kaul be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mandela Barnes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Missy Hughes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Brett Hulsey be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kelda Roys be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Sara Rodriguez be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| YES | Will David Crowley be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 100% |
| NO | Will Ben Wikler be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Joel Brennan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Crowley locks up Wisconsin Dem governor nod 100% · $5.7M 24h
- Kalshi prices Crowley at 100%, market treats the Democratic nomination as settled.
- 24h volume of $5.7M is 81% of all-time handle, a near-total resolution flush.
- Surge likely driven by a definitive primary result or filing deadline passing today.
- Contract resolves on Democratic nominee certification; no remaining uncertainty priced.
- Crowley Wisconsin Dem nomination sits at long-shot odds 21% · $37K 24h
- Price at 21%, Kalshi traders rate Crowley a clear underdog for the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nod.
- 24h volume of $37K is 80% of all-time contract liquidity, signaling a near-complete market discovery event.
- Surge implies fresh entrant information, a filing deadline, rival announcement, or polling release, driving re-evaluation.
- Nominee resolution tied to Wisconsin Democratic primary calendar; current odds favor the field over Crowley.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovwinomd-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovwinomd-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovwinomd-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GTB8QZVGM8",
"slug": "kxgovwinomd-26",
"question": "Will a Wisconsin Democratic Governor be nominated by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"wisconsin-governor",
"democratic-nominee",
"us-politics",
"2026-election",
"primary-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 921450,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 53,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}