Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms? [ resolves 2027-04-01 (240D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Republicans hold more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (1)
the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
recent wire items
- Republicans holding governor edge stays favored at 71 percent Kalshi 71%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms at 71%.
- Trading volume on this contract rose 9,668% day over day, signaling a sharp surge in fresh attention as midterm campaigning intensifies.
- Thune's defensive posture on the Senate majority and voter anxiety over Iran and gas prices are consistent with a competitive but still Republican-favored gubernatorial map.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy as the named source; standard resolution would reference official certified gubernatorial results post-election.
- Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats stays favored Kalshi 68%
- Kalshi prices Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms at 68%.
- The bullish Democratic narrative from analysts is not reflected in the pricing; the market continues to favor Republicans despite reported Democratic momentum.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Michigan's governor race prices at only 4% for a Democratic win, suggesting the market is skeptical of a broad Democratic gubernatorial wave.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy -- an atypical resolution source for an electoral question; users should verify settlement details.
- Republicans favored to hold more governorships after midterms Kalshi 70%
- Kalshi prices 70% that Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms, despite the news narrative favoring a Democratic wave.
- The market is at odds with the reported Democratic momentum in governors races; 70% GOP-holds is not consistent with projections of a historic Democratic sweep.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-55NYBQC068) puts only 32% on Democrats winning all swing-state gubernatorial races, consistent with the 70% GOP-holds figure.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy, an unusual named source; traders should verify resolution methodology.
- Republicans holding more governorships after midterms stays favored Kalshi 68%
- Kalshi prices 68% odds that Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the November 3 midterms.
- Trump's rally defiance and 'big surprise' rhetoric sits at odds with weak approval polls, but the governor market is not pricing a Democratic wave.
- A 68% Republican edge on governorships signals the market expects GOP structural advantages in state-level races to hold despite national headwinds.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-8MYX8LFZ81 (Republican wins Ohio House District 2) sits at just 1%, showing district-level vulnerability even as the statewide governor outlook favors the GOP.
- Republicans holding more governorships after midterms stays near 75% Kalshi 70%
- Kalshi prices a 70% chance Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms.
- The Democratic polling lead in congressional races has not shifted the governorship market, governors and House seats move on different electoral maps.
- Senate rejection of the Iran war powers resolution (Story 15) and the pre-election rate hike backdrop may compound Republican headwinds, but the governorship market holds above two-thirds.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy as named resolution source, an unusual resolver; traders should confirm the resolution criteria carefully.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovwins-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovwins-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovwins-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
"slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
"question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-governors",
"midterm-elections",
"party-control",
"2026-midterms",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 105717,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}