Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms? [ resolves 2027-04-01 (240D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Republicans hold more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (1)
the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
recent wire items
- Republicans holding more governorships after midterms near 50 percent Kalshi 55%
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 55%, a near-coin-flip outcome.
- Politico's midterm-nightmare framing for Republicans is consistent with the market pricing no strong GOP advantage in gubernatorial races; trading volume surged 408x day-over-day, a sharp signal of fresh attention on this contract.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) prices at only 47%, suggesting the market broadly prices a challenging midterm environment for the GOP.
- Resolution uses the Statistical Review of World Energy as named source, editors should verify this is the correct resolver; a mismatch could create settlement ambiguity.
- Republicans holding more governorships after midterms stays above 50% Kalshi 57%
- Kalshi puts 57% odds on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms, resolved via the Statistical Review of World Energy.
- Internal GOP concern about the convention's effectiveness and weak affordability messaging are headwinds, but the market still leans Republican on governorships.
- The 57% gubernatorial read contrasts with the 47% chamber-control probability on Kalshi, suggesting markets see Republicans performing better at the state executive level than in Congress.
- Resolution depends on post-election governorship counts, which will reflect both state-by-state results and any runoff outcomes, introducing timing uncertainty.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovwins-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovwins-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovwins-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
"slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
"question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-governors",
"midterm-elections",
"party-control",
"2026-midterms",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 105717,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}