Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms? [ resolves 2027-04-01 (240D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Republicans hold more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (1)
the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
recent wire items
- Republicans favored to hold more governorships after midterms Kalshi 70%
- Kalshi prices 70% that Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms, despite the news narrative favoring a Democratic wave.
- The market is at odds with the reported Democratic momentum in governors races; 70% GOP-holds is not consistent with projections of a historic Democratic sweep.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-55NYBQC068) puts only 32% on Democrats winning all swing-state gubernatorial races, consistent with the 70% GOP-holds figure.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy, an unusual named source; traders should verify resolution methodology.
- Republicans holding more governorships after midterms stays favored Kalshi 68%
- Kalshi prices 68% odds that Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the November 3 midterms.
- Trump's rally defiance and 'big surprise' rhetoric sits at odds with weak approval polls, but the governor market is not pricing a Democratic wave.
- A 68% Republican edge on governorships signals the market expects GOP structural advantages in state-level races to hold despite national headwinds.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-8MYX8LFZ81 (Republican wins Ohio House District 2) sits at just 1%, showing district-level vulnerability even as the statewide governor outlook favors the GOP.
- Republicans holding more governorships after midterms stays near 75% Kalshi 70%
- Kalshi prices a 70% chance Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms.
- The Democratic polling lead in congressional races has not shifted the governorship market, governors and House seats move on different electoral maps.
- Senate rejection of the Iran war powers resolution (Story 15) and the pre-election rate hike backdrop may compound Republican headwinds, but the governorship market holds above two-thirds.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy as named resolution source, an unusual resolver; traders should confirm the resolution criteria carefully.
- Republicans holding more governorships after midterms sits near 50% Kalshi 70%
- Kalshi prices a 70% chance Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms, with volume up 731 times day-over-day.
- Democratic polling leads at the congressional level are not yet translating into a majority pricing for a full GOP governor-seat wipeout, the 70% still favors Republicans.
- The volume surge suggests the polling news is actively pulling traders into the governorship market, though the price remains in Republican-favored territory.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one congressional chamber sits at 61%, implying the market sees a split outcome as the most likely scenario.
- Republicans holding more governorships after midterms near 50% Kalshi 70%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices a 70% probability that Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms.
- The Democratic polling lead among independents is a headwind for Republicans, yet the gubernatorial map has different dynamics than the House generic ballot, limiting direct read-across.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) prices 61% odds Republicans control at least one congressional chamber, suggesting the market sees gubernatorial and legislative outcomes as partially decoupled.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy, per the named resolution source; resolution requires a certified post-election count of governor seats by party.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovwins-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovwins-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovwins-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
"slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
"question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-governors",
"midterm-elections",
"party-control",
"2026-midterms",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 105717,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}