Will a Wyoming Republican governor nominee be determined by the 2026 election cycle? [ resolved 2026-08-19 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Barlow | 2026-08-19 | 100.0% | $114 | $13K | A | KXGOVWYNOMR-…BAR | ||
| Brent Bien | 2026-08-19 | 0.0% | — | $427 | A | KXGOVWYNOMR-…BIE | ||
| Harriet Hageman | 2026-08-19 | 0.0% | — | $3 | A | KXGOVWYNOMR-…HAG | ||
| Chuck Gray | 2026-08-19 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXGOVWYNOMR-…GRA | ||
| Megan Degenfelder | 2026-08-19 | 0.0% | $186 | $15K | A | KXGOVWYNOMR-…DEG |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Brent Bien wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Wyoming Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (1) · single authority
Republican Party committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Brent Bien be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Harriet Hageman be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chuck Gray be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Megan Degenfelder be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| YES | Will Eric Barlow be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Barlow Wyoming GOP governor nod trades at certainty 100% · $111K 24h
- Kalshi prices Eric Barlow as a lock for the Wyoming Republican gubernatorial nomination at 100%.
- $111K traded in 24h, 56% of the contract's entire all-time volume, suggests a result is in.
- Wyoming's August primary cycle aligns with today's date; fresh volume reads as settlement activity.
- Contract resolves on official Wyoming GOP primary certification naming the nominee.
- Barlow holds at 81% as Wyoming GOP primary draws fresh bets 81% · $13K 24h
- Kalshi prices Barlow at 81%, strong favorite, but roughly 1-in-5 odds of an upset remain.
- $13.5K in 24h represents 28% of all-time contract volume, indicating a meaningful conviction push.
- Surge likely reflects proximity to the Wyoming GOP primary and new public polling or endorsement news.
- Nomination resolution expected at primary; price above 75% suggests money is backing Barlow to clear the field.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovwynomr-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovwynomr-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovwynomr-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SBQ8NYFV24",
"slug": "kxgovwynomr-26",
"question": "Will a Wyoming Republican governor nominee be determined by the 2026 election cycle?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"wyoming-politics",
"republican-nominee",
"gubernatorial-race",
"2026-election",
"primary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29066,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}