Will OpenAI release GPT-6? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-11 ]
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 2026-05-08 | 1.0% | — | $1 | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26MAY01 | ||
| Jun | 2026-06-08 | 1.0% | — | $53 | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26JUN01 | ||
| Jul | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $5 | $708 | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL01 | ||
| Aug | 2026-08-08 | 20.0% | $11 | $757 | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01 | ||
| Sep | 2026-09-08 | 36.0% | $80 | $2.9K | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01 | ||
| Oct | 2026-10-08 | 51.0% | $60 | $2.0K | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01 | ||
| Nov | 2026-11-08 | 59.0% | $10 | $1.2K | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | OpenAI | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "OpenAI" sources (1) · single authority
- OpenAI source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-08 | 1% |
| NO | Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before May 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-08 | 1% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgpt-open/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgpt-open |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgpt-open") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
"slug": "kxgpt-open",
"question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"gpt-6",
"openai-release",
"ai-model-launch",
"2026",
"large-language-models"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7622,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "OpenAI",
"resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "OpenAI",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "OpenAI",
"url": "https://openai.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}