Will OpenAI release GPT-6 by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2026-11-01 (151D) ]

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?

kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 7 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026	2026-11-01	73.0%	—	$766	C	`KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01`
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026	2026-11-01	54.0%	$12	$1.2K	C	`KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01`
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026	2026-11-01	43.0%	$4	$2.7K	C	`KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01`
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026	2026-11-01	23.0%	$112	$796	C	`KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01`
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jul 1, 2026	2026-11-01	4.0%	$1	$406	C	`KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL01`
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before May 1, 2026	2026-11-01	1.0%	—	$1	C	`KXGPT-OPEN-26MAY01`
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026	2026-11-01	1.0%	—	$53	C	`KXGPT-OPEN-26JUN01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	uncommitted	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 7 markets · share this text

If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

platform source field kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgpt-open/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgpt-open.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxgpt-open")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
  "slug": "kxgpt-open",
  "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 by December 31, 2025?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "gpt-6",
    "openai-release",
    "ai-model-launch",
    "2026",
    "large-language-models"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 7,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 5900,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 75,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →