Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record | 2027-01-01 | 30.8% | $129 | $42K | C | KXGTEMP-26-P0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies" ↗ sources (1)
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgtemp-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgtemp-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgtemp-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MYCFX29QF6",
"slug": "kxgtemp-26",
"question": "Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"climate-temperature",
"annual-record",
"global-warming",
"2027-resolution",
"scientific-measurement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 42212,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "NASA Goddard\nInstitute for Space Studies",
"resolution_source_url": "https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "NASA Goddard\nInstitute for Space Studies",
"url": "https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}