Will Nvidia H200 chips be delivered to China before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Nvidia H200 chips being delivered to mainland China be confirmed?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nvidia H200 chips being delivered to mainland China be confirmed | 2027-01-01 | 65.0% | $161 | $5.3K | C | KXH200CHINA-27-BEF |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Nvidia H200 chips being delivered to mainland China is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves to Yes if any Source Agency confirms that one or more Nvidia H200 chips have been physically delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China after Issuance and before Jan. 1, 2027.
For this market, “mainland China” means the People’s Republic of China excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Delivery to Hong Kong, Macau, or Taiwan does not qualify unless a Source Agency confirms that the Nvidia H200 chips were subsequently delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China.
Regulatory approval, export licenses, purchase orders, contracts, reservations, customer allocations, payment, revenue-recognition statements, manufacturing, packaging, shipment preparation, or statements of intent do not qualify unless a Source Agency confirms physical delivery, receipt, or import into mainland China.
References to Nvidia “H200,” “H200 AI chips,” “H200 GPUs,” “H200 processors,” “H200 accelerators,” or “H200 AI accelerators” qualify, provided the Source Agency is referring to Nvidia H200 chips. References only to other Nvidia chips, including H20, H100, B200, B300, Blackwell, or China-specific modified chips, do not qualify unless the Source Agency also confirms delivery of Nvidia H200 chips.
A report that Nvidia H200 chips were delivered to an approved Chinese customer outside mainland China will not qualify, unless a Source Agency confirms that those chips were delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China before Jan. 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxh200china-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxh200china-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxh200china-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MYGYML41B3",
"slug": "kxh200china-27",
"question": "Will Nvidia H200 chips be delivered to China before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"nvidia-h200",
"china-exports",
"semiconductor-trade",
"us-export-controls",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5340,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}