Will the price of NVIDIA H200 compute decrease by June 30, 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.99 by Jun 30?

kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 20 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ $1.99	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$158	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…990`
≥ $2.19	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$93	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…190`
≥ $2.39	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$2.0K	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…390`
≥ $2.59	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$3.8K	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…590`
≥ $2.79	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$653	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…790`
≥ $3	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$318	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…990`
≥ $3.19	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$319	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…190`
≥ $3.39	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$600	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…390`
≥ $3.59	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$439	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…590`
≥ $3.79	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$570	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…790`
≥ $4	2026-06-30	100.0%	$2	$264	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…990`
≥ $4.19	2026-06-30	100.0%	$5	$167	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…190`
≥ $4.39	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$43	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…390`
≥ $4.59	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$298	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…590`
≥ $4.79	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$58	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…790`
≥ $5	2026-06-30	100.0%	—	$89	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…990`
≥ $5.19	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$21	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…190`
≥ $5.39	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$202	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…390`
≥ $5.59	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$114	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…590`
≥ $5.79	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$591	C	`KXH200Q-26JU…790`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Ornn	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 20 markets · share this text

If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $1.99 by Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the value of H200 compute per hour as reported by Ornn (https://dashboard.ornnai.com/). Revisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The "USD" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. If no data is available for the time period by the Expiration Date, all strikes excluding "No data" or "None" resolve to No. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Ornn"

sources (2) · single authority

Ornn source of record venue-listed
Ornn (https://dashboard.ornnai.com/) from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.19 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.39 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.59 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.79 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.99 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.79 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.59 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.39 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.19 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.99 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.79 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.59 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.39 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.19 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.99 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.79 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.59 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.39 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.19 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`
YES	Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.99 by Jun 30?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`100%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (20 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-06-29T01:47:13+00:00 volume-spike
H200 compute pricing above $4.79 commands near-certain flows 96% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices 96%, market treats H200 hourly compute staying above $4.79 as effectively resolved.
- $18K in 24h is 46% of all-time volume; concentrated positioning ahead of tomorrow's deadline.
- Current cloud GPU spot rates well above threshold; 96% reflects observable market data, not speculation.
- Resolves June 30, any observable pricing data confirming the rate closes the contract at near-par.
2026-06-28T10:25:52+00:00 volume-spike
Heavy flows defend H200 compute above $4.99 into June close 94% · $41K 24h
- Kalshi prices H200 hourly compute above $4.99 at 94%, market expects GPU spot rates to hold elevated.
- $41K in 24h is 51% of all-time volume, indicating fresh institutional attention on AI infrastructure pricing.
- Persistent hyperscaler demand and constrained H200 supply underpin the high-conviction YES positioning.
- Resolves June 30; 6% NO reflects thin tail for a sudden spot-price collapse in the final trading days.
2026-06-28T10:25:52+00:00 volume-spike
H200 compute floor at $4.79 draws concentrated conviction ahead of close 94% · $24K 24h
- Kalshi marks H200 spot above $4.79/hr at 94%, a lower threshold drawing the same conviction as the $4.99 contract.
- $24K in 24h is 77% of all-time volume, compressing sharply into the June 30 resolution.
- Near-parallel pricing with the $4.99 contract implies the market sees little rate risk between these two bands.
- Resolves June 30; residual uncertainty is minimal barring an abrupt compute market dislocation.
2026-06-28T10:25:52+00:00 volume-spike
H200 at $4.19 floor absorbs final-day selling at near-certain levels 96% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices the $4.19 H200 compute floor at 96%, deepest in-the-money of the three GPU contracts.
- $18K in 24h is 79% of all-time volume; late sellers absorbing any residual NO bids.
- The $4.19 level sits well below prevailing spot, making this a near-mechanical resolution barring market disruption.
- Resolves June 30; the 4% NO tail is institutional insurance against data-source or settlement anomalies.
2026-06-27T10:03:08+00:00 volume-spike
H200 compute pricing above $4.99 by June 30 defended near consensus 90% · $11K 24h
- Kalshi at 90%, market prices sustained GPU compute premium as near-certain through end of June.
- $11K in 24h is 29% of all-time volume; institutional attention intensifying at contract expiry.
- H200 spot rates have remained elevated on persistent AI inference demand; 90% reflects supply constraint conviction.
- Resolves June 30, residual 10% discount may reflect thin liquidity risk or last-hour rate compression.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxh200q-26jun30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxh200q-26jun30`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxh200q-26jun30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XQHHCRQHC2",
  "slug": "kxh200q-26jun30",
  "question": "Will the price of NVIDIA H200 compute decrease by June 30, 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "nvidia-h200",
    "gpu-pricing",
    "compute-costs",
    "2026",
    "hardware-economics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 20,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 10790,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 74,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_committed_secondhand"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Ornn",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.ornnai.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Ornn",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Ornn",
      "url": "https://www.ornnai.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ornn (https://dashboard.ornnai.com/)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →