Will the price of NVIDIA H200 compute decrease by June 30, 2026? [ resolves 2026-07-01 (28D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $1.99 | 2026-07-01 | 99.0% | $10 | $259 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…990 | ||
| ≥ $2.19 | 2026-07-01 | 99.0% | $3 | $93 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…190 | ||
| ≥ $2.39 | 2026-07-01 | 95.0% | — | $2.0K | C | KXH200Q-26JU…390 | ||
| ≥ $2.59 | 2026-07-01 | 98.0% | $3 | $3.8K | C | KXH200Q-26JU…590 | ||
| ≥ $2.79 | 2026-07-01 | 80.0% | — | $653 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…790 | ||
| ≥ $3 | 2026-07-01 | 81.0% | — | $318 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…990 | ||
| ≥ $3.19 | 2026-07-01 | 84.0% | — | $319 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…190 | ||
| ≥ $3.39 | 2026-07-01 | 98.0% | $1 | $750 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…390 | ||
| ≥ $3.59 | 2026-07-01 | 79.0% | — | $505 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…590 | ||
| ≥ $3.79 | 2026-07-01 | 84.0% | — | $657 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…790 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-07-01 | 99.0% | — | $342 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…990 | ||
| ≥ $4.19 | 2026-07-01 | 2.0% | — | $6 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…190 | ||
| ≥ $4.39 | 2026-07-01 | 94.0% | $17 | $130 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…390 | ||
| ≥ $4.59 | 2026-07-01 | 91.0% | — | $674 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…590 | ||
| ≥ $4.79 | 2026-07-01 | 35.0% | — | $104 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…790 | ||
| ≥ $5 | 2026-07-01 | 5.0% | $0 | $22 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…990 | ||
| ≥ $5.19 | 2026-07-01 | 4.0% | $0 | $21 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…190 | ||
| ≥ $5.39 | 2026-07-01 | 11.0% | — | $91 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…390 | ||
| ≥ $5.59 | 2026-07-01 | 21.0% | — | $106 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…590 | ||
| ≥ $5.79 | 2026-07-01 | 62.0% | — | $591 | C | KXH200Q-26JU…790 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $1.99 by Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the value of H200 compute per hour as reported by Ornn (https://dashboard.ornnai.com/). Revisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The "USD" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. If no data is available for the time period by the Expiration Date, all strikes excluding "No data" or "None" resolve to No. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxh200q-26jun30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxh200q-26jun30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxh200q-26jun30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XQHHCRQHC2",
"slug": "kxh200q-26jun30",
"question": "Will the price of NVIDIA H200 compute decrease by June 30, 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"nvidia-h200",
"gpu-pricing",
"compute-costs",
"2026",
"hardware-economics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11436,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ornnai.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}