Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2027) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-08 ]
Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 3 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before… | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $1.2K | $1.5K | A | KXHFHOUSING-…L26 | ||
| Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before… | 2026-07-14 | 100.0% | $126 | $115K | A | KXHFHOUSING-27 | ||
| Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before… | 2026-08-08 | 53.0% | $398 | $512 | A | KXHFHOUSING-…G26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An example of such a bill is here. Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million). Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
- Library of Congress source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day? | kalshi | 2026-07-14 | 100% |
| NO | Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Institutional housing investment bill nears full resolution pricing Kalshi 100%
- The Kalshi contract on legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment becoming law is priced at 100%, with trading volume up 64x day over day.
- The bill's automatic enactment via the ten-day pocket-unsigned rule is now confirmed, making this a resolved or near-resolved event; the 100% price reflects that certainty.
- The volume surge of 64x suggests traders rushed to close or settle positions following the confirmed enactment news, not to open new directional bets.
- Resolves via Library of Congress legislative record; the resolution source will confirm enactment date, with no veto or pocket-veto ambiguity remaining.
- Hedge fund home-buying ban law before election consensus holds firm Kalshi 84%
- Kalshi prices a bill taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes becoming law before the election at 84%.
- The Senate's overwhelming 85-5 vote on a broad housing bill is consistent with the elevated probability, signaling strong bipartisan appetite for housing legislation.
- The 16% residual likely reflects uncertainty about whether the final enacted bill will contain a hedge fund ownership restriction specifically.
- Resolves via Library of Congress; the contract requires the provision to actually become law, not merely pass one chamber.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhfhousing-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhfhousing-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhfhousing-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HH1QMWSWC1",
"slug": "kxhfhousing-27",
"question": "Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2027)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"housing-policy",
"institutional-investment",
"us-legislation",
"2026",
"real-estate-regulation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 116727,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}