Will July 2026 be the hottest July ever? [ resolved 2026-08-14 ]
Will Jul 2026 be the hottest Jul ever?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jul 2026 be the hottest Jul ever | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | $3.0K | $24K | A | KXHMONTH-26JUL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | NCEI | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jul 2026 is the hottest July ever, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "NCEI" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
NCEI committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Jul 2026 be the hottest Jul ever? | kalshi | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhmonth-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhmonth-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhmonth-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TKK5DR0KV2",
"slug": "kxhmonth-26jul",
"question": "Will July 2026 be the hottest July ever?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"climate-records",
"temperature-extremes",
"july-2026",
"global-heat",
"meteorological-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23689,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "NCEI",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "NCEI",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "NCEI",
"url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}