Will May 2026 have a temperature increase? [ resolved 2026-06-14 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 temperature increase | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | $3 | $29 | A | KXHMONTHRANG….03 | ||
| May 2026 temperature increase | 2026-06-14 | 100.0% | $1.5K | $8.4K | A | KXHMONTHRANG…060 | ||
| May 2026 temperature increase | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | $36 | $255 | A | KXHMONTHRANG…130 | ||
| May 2026 temperature increase | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | $75 | $352 | A | KXHMONTHRANG…200 | ||
| May 2026 temperature increase | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | $2 | $83 | A | KXHMONTHRANG…270 | ||
| May 2026 temperature increase | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | $52 | $232 | A | KXHMONTHRANG….30 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is below 1.03, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | May 2026 temperature increase? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
| YES | May 2026 temperature increase? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 100% |
| NO | May 2026 temperature increase? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
| NO | May 2026 temperature increase? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
| NO | May 2026 temperature increase? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
| NO | May 2026 temperature increase? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (6 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhmonthrange-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhmonthrange-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhmonthrange-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
"slug": "kxhmonthrange-26may",
"question": "Will May 2026 have a temperature increase?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"monthly-temperature",
"climate-measurement",
"may-2026",
"short-term-forecast",
"weather-metrics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9382,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}