Will the maximum temperature at Houston Hobby Airport be at least 103°F in August 2026? [ resolves 2026-09-01 (28D) ]
Will a daily maximum air temperature of at least 103°F occur in Houston, Texas, at Houston Hobby Airport in August 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a daily maximum air temperature of at least 103°F occur in Houston, Texas,… | 2026-09-01 | 25.0% | $17 | $6.8K | A | KXHOBBYTEMP-…P01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | if not U.S.: the national weather service governing area. | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a daily maximum air temperature of at least 103°F occurs in Houston, Texas, at Houston Hobby Airport in August 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service, then the market resolves to Yes.
The weather event must be explicitly identified and recorded in official reports, bulletins, advisories, or databases maintained by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service with jurisdiction over the specified area. Only the first published version confirming the event is used for resolution. For weather events defined by quantitative thresholds (hurricanes by sustained wind speed, tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita scale rating, heatwaves by temperature criteria, etc.), the determination follows official standards used by the Source Agency at the time of the event. A recording of "T" for Trace is considered above 0.00 inches but not necessarily above a specific positive number. Forecasts, projections, outlooks, or informal media mentions that do not result in confirmed occurrences do not qualify. Events back-dated after expiration do not count unless officially documented prior to expiration. If data is unavailable at the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "if not U.S.: the national weather service governing area." sources (2) · single authority
- if not U.S.: the national weather service governing area. venue-listed
- the National Weather Service source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhobbytemp-26sep01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhobbytemp-26sep01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhobbytemp-26sep01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B1C5YBG4F7",
"slug": "kxhobbytemp-26sep01",
"question": "Will the maximum temperature at Houston Hobby Airport be at least 103°F in August 2026?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"houston-weather",
"temperature-extreme",
"august-2026",
"heat-records",
"weather-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6775,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "if not U.S.: the national weather service governing area.",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the National Weather Service",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "if not U.S.: the national weather service governing area.",
"url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the National Weather Service",
"url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}