Will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2027-09 ]
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 1.0% | — | $521 | C | KXHORMUZNORM…401 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-07-14 | 0.1% | — | $1.0K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…415 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-07-30 | 0.1% | — | $2.9K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…501 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-08-13 | 0.1% | — | $2.5K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…515 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-08-30 | 0.1% | — | $3.8K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…601 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-09-13 | 1.0% | $1.1K | $15K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…615 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-09-29 | 14.0% | $109K | $597K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…701 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-10-30 | 45.0% | $127K | $792K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…801 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-11-30 | 52.0% | $48K | $363K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…901 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-12-30 | 53.0% | $15K | $268K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…001 | ||
| > 60 | 2027-01-30 | 58.0% | $11K | $27K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…101 | ||
| > 60 | 2027-03-01 | 73.0% | $16K | $33K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…201 | ||
| > 60 | 2027-04-01 | 68.0% | $33K | $429K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…101 | ||
| > 60 | 2027-06-30 | 78.0% | $4.3K | $139K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…401 | ||
| > 60 | 2027-09-29 | 78.0% | $16K | $280K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…701 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before April 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (2)
- the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
- IMF PortWatch from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 15, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-14 | 0% |
| closed | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-15 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhormuznorm-26mar17/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhormuznorm-26mar17 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhormuznorm-26mar17") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
"slug": "kxhormuznorm-26mar17",
"question": "Will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"shipping-disruption",
"geopolitical-risk",
"middle-east",
"maritime-trade"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2953746,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}