Strait of Hormuz transit calls weekly, October 26, 2026 [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-10 ]
Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 70 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | $385 | $1.0K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T70 | ||
| > 20 | 2026-10-26 | 95.0% | $488 | $7.8K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T20 | ||
| > 30 | 2026-10-26 | 84.0% | $2.6K | $7.1K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T30 | ||
| > 40 | 2026-10-26 | 66.0% | $2.1K | $6.8K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T40 | ||
| > 50 | 2026-10-26 | 53.0% | $3.3K | $11K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T50 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-10-26 | 27.0% | $807 | $2.9K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T60 | ||
| > 80 | 2026-10-26 | 5.0% | $68 | $167 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T80 | ||
| > 90 | 2026-10-26 | 4.0% | $237 | $265 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T90 | ||
| > 100 | 2026-10-26 | 1.0% | $7 | $20 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…100 | ||
| > 150 | 2026-10-26 | 1.0% | $1 | $5 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…150 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | IMF PortWatch | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 20 from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "IMF PortWatch" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
IMF PortWatch committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will there be more than 70 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Hormuz transit volume seen staying low, stuck below 70 daily calls Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies roughly 60-70 daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz: 71% above 60 but only 16% above 70.
- Trump's optimism about imminent reopening is being faded by the market, which puts only 16% odds on transit volume recovering above 70 daily calls.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-LCPV825X09) prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at just 57%, a longer-horizon market also reflecting deep uncertainty.
- Resolution: Strait of Hormuz transit call data (the named resolution source) settles each strike on the Kalshi ladder.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhormuzweekly-26jul26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhormuzweekly-26jul26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhormuzweekly-26jul26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZP6006CHN9",
"slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26jul26",
"question": "Strait of Hormuz transit calls weekly, October 26, 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"shipping-traffic",
"middle-east-geopolitics",
"weekly-metric",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 37042,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}