Will the 2026 midterm House popular vote margin exceed 5 percentage points by November 3, 2026? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (518D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2027-11-03 | 16.0% | $206 | $33K | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…B50 | ||
| 2% | 2027-11-03 | 4.7% | — | $1.5K | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…-B1 | ||
| 4% | 2027-11-03 | 5.5% | — | $1.2K | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…-B3 | ||
| 6% | 2027-11-03 | 13.0% | $5 | $711 | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…-B5 | ||
| 8% | 2027-11-03 | 15.0% | $2 | $991 | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…-B7 | ||
| 10% | 2027-11-03 | 22.0% | $7 | $3.9K | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…-B9 | ||
| 12% | 2027-11-03 | 16.0% | $14 | $2.7K | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…B11 | ||
| 14% | 2027-11-03 | 6.9% | — | $1.3K | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…B13 | ||
| 16% | 2027-11-03 | 3.3% | — | $299 | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…B15 | ||
| ≥ 100% | 2027-11-03 | 3.9% | — | $628 | C | KXHOUSEPOPVO…B58 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L7H4GLQ558",
"slug": "kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03",
"question": "Will the 2026 midterm House popular vote margin exceed 5 percentage points by November 3, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms-2026",
"house-elections",
"popular-vote",
"electoral-margins",
"generic-ballot"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 46684,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}