Will the Republican or Democratic candidate win the FL-27 House seat in the next election? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for FL-27 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Republicans slightly favored in FL-27 House race Kalshi 63%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices Republicans winning FL-27 at 63%, a slim majority-bet that reflects genuine competitive uncertainty.
- The AP report that redistricting in Florida may not favor Republicans as expected is consistent with the market's refusal to price a safe GOP seat.
- At 63%, FL-27 is among the most competitive Florida seats in the prediction market landscape; the companion FL-12 contract on Polymarket sits at only 11% Republican, suggesting district-level variance.
- Resolves via Library of Congress; final certified results determine the winner, so any recount scenario could delay settlement.
- FL-27 House race near 50%, drawing surge in fresh attention Kalshi 62%
- Kalshi prices the Republican candidate winning FL-27 at 62%, with trading volume up 4,616% day over day, 47 times the prior session.
- Trump's record-low pre-midterm approval is drawing market attention to competitive seats like FL-27, where Republican odds sit only modestly above a coin flip.
- The volume surge signals the FL-27 contract is attracting significant fresh positioning, likely as traders reassess GOP exposure given the polling backdrop.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-7RNJ53L5L5) puts 94% on the Democrat winning Massachusetts 2nd, illustrating how partisan polarization is shaping district-level pricing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhouserace-fl27-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhouserace-fl27-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhouserace-fl27-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RTW7ZKGKR3",
"slug": "kxhouserace-fl27-26",
"question": "Will the Republican or Democratic candidate win the FL-27 House seat in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-elections",
"florida-politics",
"2027-elections",
"congressional-race",
"electoral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5916,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}