Will MN-01 House winner be determined by January 4, 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for MN-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Republican hold in MN-01 draws heavy backing at 75%+ 77% · $76K 24h
- 77% price reflects strong but not certain Republican favoritism in this competitive southern Minnesota district.
- 24h volume of $75K is 56% of all-time handle, a major single-session commitment to the current odds.
- Mid-October timing aligns with final polling drops and closing ad-spend reports shaping trader conviction.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election night; any late polling shift would move this price quickly.
- Buyers back the GOP hold in MN-01 at 76% 76% · $74K 24h
- Kalshi prices GOP at 76%, solid favorite but not a lock, leaving real upset risk.
- $74K traded in 24h, equal to 56% of all-time contract volume, flagging a sudden attention spike.
- Midterm House map focus intensifying; MN-01 is a competitive rural district drawing late-cycle capital.
- Contract resolves on November 2026 election result.
- Republican hold on MN-01 stays well-bid at 84% 84% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices the Republican at 84% to hold MN-01, a strong-lean probability in a historically red-leaning district.
- $18K traded in 24h equals 36% of all-time volume, a notable mid-cycle attention spike.
- Fresh volume at unchanged high odds suggests bettors are backing the incumbent lean rather than chasing a surprise.
- Resolves on the 2026 MN-01 House election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhouserace-mn01-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhouserace-mn01-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhouserace-mn01-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0HH4XXLY85",
"slug": "kxhouserace-mn01-26",
"question": "Will MN-01 House winner be determined by January 4, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2026-us-midterms",
"minnesota-politics",
"house-races",
"election-prediction",
"congressional-district"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16362,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}