Will the winner of the New York's 21st Congressional District House election be determined by January 4, 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for NY-21 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Democrats slip under 25% in NY-21 on busy session 25% · $10K 24h
- Kalshi places Democratic odds of winning NY-21 at 25%, at the outer edge of long-shot territory.
- 49% of all-time volume, $10K, cleared in the last 24 hours, compressing roughly half of lifetime activity.
- NY-21 has historically been competitive; fresh volume at 25% suggests the market is now treating it as a lean-Republican seat.
- Resolves on 2026 NY-21 House election result.
- Democratic bid for NY-21 priced as a long shot at 28% 28% · $11K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic win in NY-21 at 28%, the market treats this as a Republican-leaning seat.
- 48% of all-time contract volume cleared in 24h, suggesting a sharp catalyst pulled fresh money to both sides.
- NY-21 was flipped red in 2022 and has trended competitive; a polling release or candidate event could explain the attention spike.
- Resolves on the certified NY-21 House general election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhouserace-ny21-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhouserace-ny21-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhouserace-ny21-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H11V46ZQN5",
"slug": "kxhouserace-ny21-26",
"question": "Will the winner of the New York's 21st Congressional District House election be determined by January 4, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-elections",
"new-york-politics",
"2027-elections",
"electoral-outcomes",
"district-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17449,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}