Will U.S. House turnout exceed 50% in the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolves 2027-03-31 (301D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be at least 125 million | 2027-03-31 | 27.0% | — | $5.3K | C | KXHOUSETURNO…125 | ||
| ≤ 89,999,999 | 2027-03-31 | 2.7% | $1 | $206 | C | KXHOUSETURNO…W90 | ||
| 94,999,999 | 2027-03-31 | 1.0% | — | $55 | C | KXHOUSETURNO…-90 | ||
| 99,999,999 | 2027-03-31 | 1.4% | — | $70 | C | KXHOUSETURNO…-95 | ||
| 104,999,999 | 2027-03-31 | 3.0% | — | $130 | C | KXHOUSETURNO…100 | ||
| 109,999,999 | 2027-03-31 | 6.8% | $3 | $21 | C | KXHOUSETURNO…105 | ||
| 114,999,999 | 2027-03-31 | 13.0% | — | $993 | C | KXHOUSETURNO…110 | ||
| 119,999,999 | 2027-03-31 | 21.0% | $7 | $1.5K | C | KXHOUSETURNO…115 | ||
| 124,999,999 | 2027-03-31 | 20.0% | — | $1.8K | C | KXHOUSETURNO…120 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is 89,999,999 and below, then the market resolves to Yes.
The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhouseturnout-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhouseturnout-26nov03.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhouseturnout-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
"slug": "kxhouseturnout-26nov03",
"question": "Will U.S. House turnout exceed 50% in the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterm-elections",
"voter-turnout",
"house-of-representatives",
"election-2026",
"political-participation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10065,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}