Will U.S. House turnout in the 2026 midterm elections exceed 50%? [ resolves 2027-03-31 (268D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 125 | 2027-03-31 | 27.0% | — | $5.3K | A | KXHOUSETURNO…125 | ||
| < 90 | 2027-03-31 | 2.1% | — | $163 | A | KXHOUSETURNO…W90 | ||
| Between 90 and 94.99 | 2027-03-31 | 1.0% | — | $55 | A | KXHOUSETURNO…-90 | ||
| Between 95 and 99.99 | 2027-03-31 | 1.5% | — | $75 | A | KXHOUSETURNO…-95 | ||
| Between 100 and 104.99 | 2027-03-31 | 3.0% | — | $130 | A | KXHOUSETURNO…100 | ||
| Between 105 and 109.99 | 2027-03-31 | 6.8% | — | $21 | A | KXHOUSETURNO…105 | ||
| Between 110 and 114.99 | 2027-03-31 | 13.0% | — | $993 | A | KXHOUSETURNO…110 | ||
| Between 115 and 119.99 | 2027-03-31 | 21.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXHOUSETURNO…115 | ||
| Between 120 and 124.99 | 2027-03-31 | 20.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXHOUSETURNO…120 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is 89,999,999 and below, then the market resolves to Yes.
The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place" sources (3) · single authority
- the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place venue-listed
- officially certified results from the relevant election authority from rules text · editorial
- the relevant election authority source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhouseturnout-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhouseturnout-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhouseturnout-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
"slug": "kxhouseturnout-26nov03",
"question": "Will U.S. House turnout in the 2026 midterm elections exceed 50%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterm-elections",
"voter-turnout",
"house-of-representatives",
"political-participation",
"election-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10035,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which takes place" ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the relevant election authority",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which takes place" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the relevant election authority",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}