CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Democrats win at least X House seats in Utah? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (518D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
0 2027-11-03 4.0%
$5
A KXHOUSEWINST…-E0
1 2027-11-03 84.0%
$5.1K
A KXHOUSEWINST…-E1
2 2027-11-03 4.0%
$0
A KXHOUSEWINST…-E2
≥ 2 2027-11-03 0.0%
A KXHOUSEWINST…-A2
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff official electoral commission or electoral authority responsible for <election> not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 4 markets · share this text
If Democrats win 0 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Utah, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "official electoral commission or electoral authority responsible for <election>"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhousewinstate-utd/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhousewinstate-utd.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxhousewinstate-utd")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QR2YGB2ZQ4",
  "slug": "kxhousewinstate-utd",
  "question": "Will Democrats win at least X House seats in Utah?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "utah-politics",
    "2026-midterms",
    "democratic-performance",
    "electoral-outcomes"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 5104,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "official electoral commission or electoral authority responsible for ",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →