Will Hurricane Fausto reach Category 4 or higher? [ resolves 2026-12-02 (132D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fausto become a Category 1 hurricane | 2026-12-02 | 99.0% | $1.2K | $5.3K | A | KXHURCAT-26F…-T1 | ||
| Will Fausto become a Category 2 hurricane | 2026-12-02 | 1.0% | $130 | $145 | A | KXHURCAT-26F…-T2 | ||
| Will Fausto become a Category 3 hurricane | 2026-12-02 | 1.0% | $99 | $163 | A | KXHURCAT-26F…-T3 | ||
| Will Fausto become a Category 4 hurricane | 2026-12-02 | 1.0% | $1 | $238 | A | KXHURCAT-26F…-T4 | ||
| Will Fausto become a Category 5 hurricane | 2026-12-02 | 1.0% | — | $124 | A | KXHURCAT-26F…-T5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Fausto reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 74 mph according to the NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.
Should the event occur prior to December 01, 2026, the market will expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" sources (2) · single authority
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration source of record venue-listed
- NOAA's National Hurricane Center from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhurcat-26fausto/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhurcat-26fausto |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhurcat-26fausto") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7J5KLDL137",
"slug": "kxhurcat-26fausto",
"question": "Will Hurricane Fausto reach Category 4 or higher?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"tropical-cyclones",
"atlantic-hurricane-season",
"hurricane-intensity",
"weather-prediction",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5938,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}