How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-02 (149D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 4 | 2026-12-02 | 77.0% | $140 | $2.7K | A | KXHURCTOT-26…-T4 | ||
| > 5 | 2026-12-02 | 39.0% | $7 | $1.8K | A | KXHURCTOT-26…-T5 | ||
| > 6 | 2026-12-02 | 41.0% | $4 | $2.3K | A | KXHURCTOT-26…-T6 | ||
| > 7 | 2026-12-02 | 13.0% | — | $249 | A | KXHURCTOT-26…-T7 | ||
| > 8 | 2026-12-02 | 27.0% | $37 | $298 | A | KXHURCTOT-26…-T8 | ||
| > 9 | 2026-12-02 | 10.0% | — | $76 | A | KXHURCTOT-26…-T9 | ||
| > 10 | 2026-12-02 | 2.0% | — | $24 | A | KXHURCTOT-26…T10 | ||
| > 12 | 2026-12-02 | 6.0% | — | $40 | A | KXHURCTOT-26…T12 | ||
| > 15 | 2026-12-02 | 7.0% | — | $19 | A | KXHURCTOT-26…T15 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 4 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" sources (2) · single authority
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration source of record venue-listed
- NOAA's National Hurricane Center from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhurctot-26dec01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhurctot-26dec01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhurctot-26dec01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K5J8ZM4VT0",
"slug": "kxhurctot-26dec01",
"question": "How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"atlantic-hurricanes",
"weather-forecasting",
"climate-2026",
"seasonal-prediction",
"quantitative-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7504,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}