Atlantic major hurricanes, 2026 [ resolves 2026-10 – 2026-12 ]
Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 0 | 2026-10-12 | 100.0% | $40 | $2.3K | A | KXHURCTOTMAJ…-T0 | ||
| > 1 | 2026-12-02 | 61.0% | $146 | $3.2K | A | KXHURCTOTMAJ…-T1 | ||
| > 2 | 2026-12-02 | 43.0% | $56 | $8.9K | A | KXHURCTOTMAJ…-T2 | ||
| > 3 | 2026-12-02 | 21.0% | $16 | $2.8K | A | KXHURCTOTMAJ…-T3 | ||
| > 4 | 2026-12-02 | 21.0% | — | $2.3K | A | KXHURCTOTMAJ…-T4 | ||
| > 5 | 2026-12-02 | 8.0% | $1 | $357 | A | KXHURCTOTMAJ…-T5 | ||
| > 6 | 2026-12-02 | 9.0% | — | $117 | A | KXHURCTOTMAJ…-T6 | ||
| > 7 | 2026-12-02 | 7.0% | — | $196 | A | KXHURCTOTMAJ…-T7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 0 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" sources (2) · single authority
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration committed source NOAA's National Hurricane Center from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-12 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Atlantic major hurricane odds stay at 99% through surge 99% · $12K 24h
- Kalshi prices at least one major Atlantic hurricane in 2026 at 99%, near-certainty by market consensus.
- 28% of all-time volume arrived in 24h; modest share but notable given the one-sided price leaves little edge to trade.
- Fresh volume at a 99% price implies either late hedging on weather-exposed positions or arbitrage-driven liquidity provision.
- Resolves if any 2026 Atlantic storm reaches major hurricane status (Category 3+) before season close.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhurctotmaj-26dec01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhurctotmaj-26dec01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhurctotmaj-26dec01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
"slug": "kxhurctotmaj-26dec01",
"question": "Atlantic major hurricanes, 2026",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"atlantic-hurricanes",
"weather-forecasting",
"2026",
"seasonal-prediction",
"climate-events"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20130,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}