Iowa Governor-Senate combo [ resolves 2027-11-03 (456D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party and Iowa Senate winner be Democratic | 2027-11-03 | 35.0% | $2 | $2.6K | C | KXIASENGOVCO…DEM | ||
| Republican party and Iowa Senate winner be Republican | 2027-11-03 | 34.0% | $0 | $2.3K | C | KXIASENGOVCO…REP | ||
| Democratic party and Iowa Senate winner be Republican | 2027-11-03 | 26.0% | — | $2.5K | C | KXIASENGOVCO…REP | ||
| Republican party and Iowa Senate winner be Democratic | 2027-11-03 | 4.0% | — | $297 | C | KXIASENGOVCO…DEM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Iowa Governor winner: Democratic party, Iowa Senate winner: Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Iowa Governor winner (GOVPARTY), Iowa Senate winner (SENATEPARTY).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3)
Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Iowa governor-senate same-party combo stays below 50% Kalshi 35%
- Kalshi puts 35% on Iowa electing a governor and senator from the same party, reflecting a competitive state where split outcomes remain the base case.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 695x day over day, a sharp signal that the primary results are pulling fresh attention to Iowa's general-election setup.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-5BB4SFW2V1 prices Michigan's same-party sweep at 53%, showing the market sees Michigan as more likely to unify than Iowa.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as named resolution source; actual resolution will depend on official certified election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxiasengovcombo-26nov/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxiasengovcombo-26nov |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxiasengovcombo-26nov") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K724YL44P6",
"slug": "kxiasengovcombo-26nov",
"question": "Iowa Governor-Senate combo",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"iowa-elections",
"governor-senate-combo",
"2027-election",
"us-politics",
"democratic-party"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7673,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}