Will legislation funding ICE's ERO become law? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2027) [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]
Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Apr 1, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | 2026-05-01 | 0.0% | — | $19 | A | KXICEERO-26M…Y01 | ||
| Jun 1, 2026 | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $55 | A | KXICEERO-26M…N01 | ||
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | $262 | $26K | A | KXICEERO-26M…L01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | $19 | $9.6K | A | KXICEERO-26M…N01 | ||
| Apr 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $72 | A | KXICEERO-26M…R01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) has become law after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Apr 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | — |
| YES | Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
| NO | Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before May 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxiceero-26mar/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxiceero-26mar |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxiceero-26mar") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RJNYTQ9C61",
"slug": "kxiceero-26mar",
"question": "Will legislation funding ICE's ERO become law? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2027)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"ice-enforcement",
"us-immigration-policy",
"federal-funding",
"2026",
"legislative-action"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 35424,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}