Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 24.0% | $70 | $64K | C | KXINTERSTELLAR-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the International Astronomical Union | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If any object is confirmed to be an interstellar visitor before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the International Astronomical Union" sources (25) · stated precedence rule
the International Astronomical Union committed source EarthSky venue-listed Scientific American venue-listed NASA venue-listed Fox News venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed ABC venue-listed the Minor Planet Center venue-listed Nature venue-listed Ars Technica venue-listed in hierarchical order venue-listed CBS venue-listed NBC venue-listed LiveScience venue-listed the European Space Agency venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed CNN venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Axios venue-listed Politico venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed BBC venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxinterstellar-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxinterstellar-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxinterstellar-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YNSX6HM6Q9",
"slug": "kxinterstellar-26",
"question": "Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"astronomy",
"interstellar-objects",
"space-discovery",
"2026",
"scientific-confirmation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 64044,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 63,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "the International Astronomical Union",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the International Astronomical Union",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the International Astronomical Union",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "EarthSky",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Scientific American",
"url": "https://www.scientificamerican.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NASA",
"url": "https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Minor Planet Center",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Nature",
"url": "https://www.nature.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Ars Technica",
"url": "https://arstechnica.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "LiveScience",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the European Space Agency",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}