What will the S&P 500 price range be on August 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (0D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 7125 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…125 | ||
| Between 7125 and 7149.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…137 | ||
| Between 7150 and 7174.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…162 | ||
| Between 7175 and 7199.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…187 | ||
| Between 7200 and 7224.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…212 | ||
| Between 7225 and 7249.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…237 | ||
| Between 7250 and 7274.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…262 | ||
| Between 7275 and 7299.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…287 | ||
| Between 7300 and 7324.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…312 | ||
| Between 7325 and 7349.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…337 | ||
| Between 7350 and 7374.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…362 | ||
| Between 7375 and 7399.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…387 | ||
| Between 7400 and 7424.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $10 | $10 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…412 | ||
| Between 7425 and 7449.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $12 | $12 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…437 | ||
| Between 7450 and 7474.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $22 | $22 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…462 | ||
| Between 7475 and 7499.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $2 | $2 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…487 | ||
| Between 7500 and 7524.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…512 | ||
| Between 7525 and 7549.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $6 | $6 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…537 | ||
| Between 7550 and 7574.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $10 | $10 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…562 | ||
| Between 7575 and 7599.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $9 | $9 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…587 | ||
| Between 7600 and 7624.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $40 | $40 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…612 | ||
| Between 7625 and 7649.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $77 | $77 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…637 | ||
| Between 7650 and 7674.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 2.0% | $186 | $186 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…662 | ||
| Between 7675 and 7699.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 2.0% | $148 | $148 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…687 | ||
| Between 7700 and 7724.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 14.0% | $1.1K | $1.1K | B | KXINX-26AUG0…712 | ||
| Between 7725 and 7749.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 40.0% | $2.7K | $2.7K | B | KXINX-26AUG0…737 | ||
| Between 7750 and 7774.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 31.0% | $1.6K | $1.8K | B | KXINX-26AUG0…762 | ||
| Between 7775 and 7799.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 13.0% | $226 | $226 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…787 | ||
| Between 7800 and 7824.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 3.0% | $0 | $0 | B | KXINX-26AUG0…812 | ||
| > 7824.9999 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINX-26AUG0…999 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | For example, Google Finance | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on August 04, 2026 is below 7125, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close on August 04, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after August 04, 2026.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance" ↗ sources (1)
- For example, Google Finance venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxinx-26aug04h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxinx-26aug04h1600 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxinx-26aug04h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XR3T80CZY7",
"slug": "kxinx-26aug04h1600",
"question": "What will the S&P 500 price range be on August 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"sp500",
"price-range",
"equities",
"us-markets",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6389,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "For example, Google Finance",
"url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}