CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

What will the S&P 500 price range be on August 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (0D) ]

kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 30 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
< 7125 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…125
Between 7125 and 7149.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…137
Between 7150 and 7174.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…162
Between 7175 and 7199.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…187
Between 7200 and 7224.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…212
Between 7225 and 7249.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…237
Between 7250 and 7274.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…262
Between 7275 and 7299.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…287
Between 7300 and 7324.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…312
Between 7325 and 7349.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…337
Between 7350 and 7374.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…362
Between 7375 and 7399.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…387
Between 7400 and 7424.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$10 $10
B KXINX-26AUG0…412
Between 7425 and 7449.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$12 $12
B KXINX-26AUG0…437
Between 7450 and 7474.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$22 $22
B KXINX-26AUG0…462
Between 7475 and 7499.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$2 $2
B KXINX-26AUG0…487
Between 7500 and 7524.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…512
Between 7525 and 7549.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$6 $6
B KXINX-26AUG0…537
Between 7550 and 7574.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$10 $10
B KXINX-26AUG0…562
Between 7575 and 7599.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$9 $9
B KXINX-26AUG0…587
Between 7600 and 7624.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$40 $40
B KXINX-26AUG0…612
Between 7625 and 7649.9999 2026-08-04 1.0%
$77 $77
B KXINX-26AUG0…637
Between 7650 and 7674.9999 2026-08-04 2.0%
$186 $186
B KXINX-26AUG0…662
Between 7675 and 7699.9999 2026-08-04 2.0%
$148 $148
B KXINX-26AUG0…687
Between 7700 and 7724.9999 2026-08-04 14.0%
$1.1K $1.1K
B KXINX-26AUG0…712
Between 7725 and 7749.9999 2026-08-04 40.0%
$2.7K $2.7K
B KXINX-26AUG0…737
Between 7750 and 7774.9999 2026-08-04 31.0%
$1.6K $1.8K
B KXINX-26AUG0…762
Between 7775 and 7799.9999 2026-08-04 13.0%
$226 $226
B KXINX-26AUG0…787
Between 7800 and 7824.9999 2026-08-04 3.0%
$0 $0
B KXINX-26AUG0…812
> 7824.9999 2026-08-04 0.0%
B KXINX-26AUG0…999
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff For example, Google Finance link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 30 markets · share this text
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on August 04, 2026 is below 7125, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on August 04, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after August 04, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance"
sources (1)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxinx-26aug04h1600/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxinx-26aug04h1600
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxinx-26aug04h1600")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XR3T80CZY7",
  "slug": "kxinx-26aug04h1600",
  "question": "What will the S&P 500 price range be on August 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "sp500",
    "price-range",
    "equities",
    "us-markets",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 30,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6389,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "For example, Google Finance",
      "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →