What will the S&P 500 index price be on August 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT? [ resolves 2026-08-11 (7D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 90 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 7324.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7329.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7334.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7339.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7344.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7349.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7354.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7359.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7364.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7369.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7374.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7379.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7384.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7389.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7394.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7399.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 97.0% | $673 | $673 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7404.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $56 | $56 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7409.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7414.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7419.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7424.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7429.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7434.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7439.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $93 | $93 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7444.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7449.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7454.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7459.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7464.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7469.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7474.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $1.2K | $1.2K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7479.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7484.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7489.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7494.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7499.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 97.0% | $53 | $53 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7504.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7509.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $2.0K | $2.0K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7514.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7519.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7524.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7529.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7534.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7539.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7544.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7549.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 94.0% | $1.7K | $1.7K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7554.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 93.0% | $74 | $74 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7559.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7564.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 97.0% | $1.2K | $1.2K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7569.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 90.0% | $667 | $667 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7574.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 95.0% | $1.9K | $1.9K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7579.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 83.0% | $98 | $98 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7584.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 95.0% | $1.4K | $1.4K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7589.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $1.3K | $1.3K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7594.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $5.6K | $5.6K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7599.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $7.4K | $7.4K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7604.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $16K | $16K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7609.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $8.2K | $8.2K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7614.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $1.6K | $1.6K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7619.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $6.6K | $6.6K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7624.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $7.1K | $7.1K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7629.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $4.2K | $4.2K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7634.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $2.6K | $2.6K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7639.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $4.9K | $4.9K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7644.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $5.3K | $5.3K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7649.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $9.5K | $9.5K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7654.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $7.1K | $7.1K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7659.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 98.0% | $8.1K | $8.1K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7664.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $11K | $11K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7669.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $16K | $16K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7674.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 94.0% | $881 | $881 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7679.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 93.0% | $4.8K | $4.8K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7684.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 97.0% | $4.8K | $4.8K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7689.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 97.0% | $6.6K | $6.6K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7694.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 96.0% | $7.0K | $7.0K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7699.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 97.0% | $3.0K | $3.0K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7704.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 92.0% | $4.4K | $4.4K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7709.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 92.0% | $7.4K | $7.5K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7714.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 90.0% | $4.8K | $4.8K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7719.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 86.0% | $9.5K | $12K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7724.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 77.0% | $4.4K | $4.5K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7729.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 70.0% | $3.0K | $3.3K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7734.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 63.0% | $2.4K | $2.5K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7739.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 56.0% | $2.5K | $3.2K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7744.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 47.0% | $3.5K | $5.2K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7749.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 40.0% | $1.5K | $1.5K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7754.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 28.0% | $1.2K | $1.2K | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7759.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 27.0% | $14 | $14 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7764.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 24.0% | $366 | $371 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 | ||
| > 7769.9999 | 2026-08-11 | 16.0% | $33 | $33 | B | KXINXU-26AUG…999 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | For example, Google Finance | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on August 04, 2026 is above 7324.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close on August 04, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after August 04, 2026.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance" ↗ sources (1)
- For example, Google Finance venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxinxu-26aug04h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxinxu-26aug04h1600 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxinxu-26aug04h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4RQ0KLHLH2",
"slug": "kxinxu-26aug04h1600",
"question": "What will the S&P 500 index price be on August 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"sp500",
"equities",
"us-markets",
"price-index",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 90,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 211656,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "For example, Google Finance",
"url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}