Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 27 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 4000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $115 | $8.2K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…000 | ||
| Between 4000 and 4199.99 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $698 | B | KXINXY-26DEC…100 | ||
| Between 4200 and 4399.99 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $606 | B | KXINXY-26DEC…300 | ||
| Between 4400 and 4599.99 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $468 | B | KXINXY-26DEC…500 | ||
| Between 4600 and 4799.99 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $465 | B | KXINXY-26DEC…700 | ||
| Between 4800 and 4999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $704 | B | KXINXY-26DEC…900 | ||
| Between 5000 and 5199.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $2.0K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…100 | ||
| Between 5200 and 5399.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $2.1K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…300 | ||
| Between 5400 and 5599.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $2.1K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…500 | ||
| Between 5600 and 5799.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $2.7K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…700 | ||
| Between 5800 and 5999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $3 | $2.4K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…900 | ||
| Between 6000 and 6199.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $6 | $3.6K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…100 | ||
| Between 6200 and 6399.99 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $1 | $4.9K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…300 | ||
| Between 6400 and 6599.99 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $1 | $4.9K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…500 | ||
| Between 6600 and 6799.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $5 | $4.0K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…700 | ||
| Between 6800 and 6999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $11 | $5.6K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…900 | ||
| Between 7000 and 7199.99 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $1 | $8.4K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…100 | ||
| Between 7200 and 7399.99 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $3 | $15K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…300 | ||
| Between 7400 and 7599.99 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $127 | $22K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…500 | ||
| Between 7600 and 7799.99 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $176 | $32K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…700 | ||
| Between 7800 and 7999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | $538 | $30K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…900 | ||
| Between 8000 and 8199.99 | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $900 | $23K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…100 | ||
| Between 8200 and 8399.99 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $395 | $15K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…300 | ||
| Between 8400 and 8599.99 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $29 | $6.3K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…500 | ||
| Between 8600 and 8799.99 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $11 | $4.0K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…700 | ||
| Between 8800 and 9000 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $97 | $4.8K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…900 | ||
| > 9000 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $42 | $3.4K | B | KXINXY-26DEC…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | For example, Google Finance | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance" ↗ sources (1)
- For example, Google Finance venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxinxy-26dec31h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxinxy-26dec31h1600 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxinxy-26dec31h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K47V5LVKY9",
"slug": "kxinxy-26dec31h1600",
"question": "Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"sp500",
"stock-market",
"year-end-2026",
"price-prediction",
"us-equities"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 27,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 209310,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "For example, Google Finance",
"url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}