CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Apple release the iPhone 18 by 2026? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2027-01 ]

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Apr 1, 2026 2026-04-08 1.0%
$99
A KXIPHONERELE…R01
Jul 1, 2026 2026-07-01 0.0%
$2 $353
A KXIPHONERELE…L01
Oct 1, 2026 2026-10-08 18.0%
$88 $33K
A KXIPHONERELE…T01
Jan 1, 2027 2027-01-08 19.0%
$127 $48K
A KXIPHONERELE…N01
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff company not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 4 markets · share this text
If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "company"
sources (3) · single authority
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Jul 1, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-01 0%
NO Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Apr 1, 2026? kalshi 2026-04-08 1%
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxiphonerelease-iphone18/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxiphonerelease-iphone18
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxiphonerelease-iphone18")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZ85JTJJW8",
  "slug": "kxiphonerelease-iphone18",
  "question": "Will Apple release the iPhone 18 by 2026?",
  "category": "companies",
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "apple",
    "iphone",
    "product-release",
    "consumer-tech",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 81125,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 91,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "company",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Apple Inc.",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "company",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "authorized retailers and distributors of company",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Apple Inc.",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →