CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]

kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 27 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Cerebras · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 99.0%
$55K
C KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS
SpaceX · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 99.0%
$2.9K $294K
C KXIPO-26-SPACEX
Anthropic · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 91.0%
$1.3K $186K
C KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC
Jersey Mike's · Who will IPO in 2026? 2027-01-01 90.0%
$11K
C KXIPO-26-JERS
OpenAI · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 65.0%
$5.8K $184K
C KXIPO-26-OPENAI
Discord · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 60.0%
$928 $57K
C KXIPO-26-DISCORD
Kraken · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 46.0%
$50K
C KXIPO-26-KRAKEN
Databricks · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 20.0%
$853 $40K
C KXIPO-26-DAT…CKS
Ramp · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 19.0%
$5.0K
C KXIPO-26-RAMP
Skims · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 16.0%
$1.0K
C KXIPO-26-SKIMS
Plaid · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 16.0%
$6.0K
C KXIPO-26-PLAID
Shein · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 15.0%
$0 $1.5K
C KXIPO-26-SHEIN
Stripe · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 13.0%
$8.7K
C KXIPO-26-STRIPE
Beast Industries · Who will IPO in 2026? 2027-01-01 12.0%
$9 $1.3K
C KXIPO-26-BEAS
Airwallex · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 12.0%
$1.1K
C KXIPO-26-AIRWALLEX
Deel · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 11.0%
$3.9K
C KXIPO-26-DEEL
Applied Intuition · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 10.0%
$1.9K
C KXIPO-26-AIN…ION
Glean · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 10.0%
$7 $709
C KXIPO-26-GLEAN
Mistral AI · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 9.0%
$464
C KXIPO-26-MISTRAL
Ripple Labs · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 9.0%
$57 $2.4K
C KXIPO-26-RIPPLE
Rippling · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 9.0%
$19 $1.2K
C KXIPO-26-RIPPLING
Anduril · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 8.0%
$11 $18K
C KXIPO-26-ANDURIL
Anysphere (Cursor) · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 6.0%
$1.3K
C KXIPO-26-ANYSPHERE
Vanta · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 5.0%
$476
C KXIPO-26-VANTA
xAI · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 5.0%
$0 $1.9K
C KXIPO-26-XAI
Celonis · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 3.0%
$429
C KXIPO-26-CELONIS
Brex · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 3.0%
$657
C KXIPO-26-BREX
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff the New York Times not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 27 markets · share this text
If Jersey Mike's confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the New York Times"
sources (9)
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Who will IPO before 2027? kalshi 2027-01-01 99%
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
  • 2026-07-21T10:23:12+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Discord IPO before 2027 splits sharply across venues Polymarket 27% vs Kalshi 48%
    • Kalshi prices 48%, Polymarket 27%, a 21pp spread on the same before-2027 horizon.
    • Kalshi is the higher market; Polymarket carries the dominant liquidity at roughly 9x cumulative volume.
    • Thin Kalshi volume may permit price distortion; Polymarket's deeper book likely reflects broader informed consensus.
    • Resolution hinges on a confirmed Discord IPO filing or listing before Jan 1 2027.
  • 2026-07-21T10:23:12+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Deel IPO pricing decouples on the major prediction desks Polymarket 4% vs Kalshi 10%
    • Kalshi sits at 10%, Polymarket at 4%, a 6pp gap on a low-probability before-2027 claim.
    • Kalshi is the higher market; Polymarket holds roughly 37x the cumulative volume.
    • At these low absolute levels, the percentage gap is proportionally large; Kalshi's thin book amplifies drift.
    • Resolution requires a confirmed Deel IPO or listing event before Jan 1 2027.
  • 2026-07-20T10:48:09+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Discord IPO before 2027 splits sharply across venues Polymarket 30% vs Kalshi 43%
    • Kalshi prices Discord IPO at 43%, Polymarket at 30%, a 13pp gap on the same horizon.
    • Kalshi is the higher-side venue; Polymarket carries substantially deeper liquidity on this contract.
    • Thin Kalshi volume may reflect a smaller, less-diversified crowd skewing optimistic on a 2026 IPO window.
    • Resolution requires a completed Discord IPO filing or listing before Jan 1, 2027.
  • 2026-07-19T09:49:54+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Discord IPO timeline decouples on the major prediction desks Polymarket 35% vs Kalshi 46%
    • Kalshi prices at 46%, Polymarket at 35%, an 11pp divergence on the same horizon.
    • Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket holds roughly nine times the cumulative volume.
    • Kalshi's retail-skewed audience may be over-pricing IPO optimism relative to Polymarket's larger, more active crowd.
    • Resolves YES only on a completed public offering before Jan 1, 2027.
  • 2026-07-18T09:21:12+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    SHEIN IPO pricing converges near consensus but isolates a seven-point gap Polymarket 85% vs Kalshi 78%
    • Polymarket prices SHEIN IPO at 85%, Kalshi at 78%, a 7pp gap, with Polymarket the higher venue.
    • Polymarket carries roughly 4.6x Kalshi's cumulative volume, lending weight to its higher price.
    • Kalshi's discount may reflect greater sensitivity to regulatory or cross-border listing risk.
    • Resolves YES on a completed SHEIN public offering before Jan 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxipo-26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxipo-26
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxipo-26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "slug": "kxipo-26",
  "question": "Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?",
  "category": "companies",
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "ipo",
    "corporate-announcements",
    "2027",
    "equity-markets",
    "tech-and-finance"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 27,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 934156,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 80,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "the New York Times",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "the New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Financial Times",
      "url": "https://www.ft.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNBC",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the SEC",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →