Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-01 ]
Who will IPO before 2027?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 31 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shein · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2026-08-24 | 100.0% | — | $27K | C | KXIPO-26-SHEIN | ||
| Jersey Mike's · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $20K | C | KXIPO-26-JERS | ||
| SpaceX · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $312K | C | KXIPO-26-SPACEX | ||
| Cerebras · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $55K | C | KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS | ||
| Anthropic · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 75.0% | $294 | $195K | C | KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC | ||
| Oura · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 75.0% | $71 | $2.5K | C | KXIPO-26-OURA | ||
| Discord · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 38.0% | $74 | $43K | C | KXIPO-26-DISCORD | ||
| OpenAI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $329 | $88K | C | KXIPO-26-OPENAI | ||
| DeepSeek · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $369 | C | KXIPO-26-DEEP | ||
| Kraken · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $18K | C | KXIPO-26-KRAKEN | ||
| Gopuff · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $129 | C | KXIPO-26-GOPU | ||
| Applied Intuition · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $2.2K | C | KXIPO-26-AIN…ION | ||
| Plaid · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $3.6K | C | KXIPO-26-PLAID | ||
| Celonis · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $16 | $1.1K | C | KXIPO-26-CELONIS | ||
| Deel · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $2.5K | C | KXIPO-26-DEEL | ||
| Mistral AI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $421 | C | KXIPO-26-MISTRAL | ||
| Ramp · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $1 | $2.1K | C | KXIPO-26-RAMP | ||
| Rippling · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $990 | C | KXIPO-26-RIPPLING | ||
| Glean · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $522 | C | KXIPO-26-GLEAN | ||
| Beast Industries · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $903 | C | KXIPO-26-BEAS | ||
| Vanta · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $3 | $623 | C | KXIPO-26-VANTA | ||
| Ripple Labs · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $3 | $1.8K | C | KXIPO-26-RIPPLE | ||
| Skims · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $453 | C | KXIPO-26-SKIMS | ||
| Stripe · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $4.4K | C | KXIPO-26-STRIPE | ||
| Databricks · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $3 | $11K | C | KXIPO-26-DAT…CKS | ||
| Anduril · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $0 | $9.9K | C | KXIPO-26-ANDURIL | ||
| Brex · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $667 | C | KXIPO-26-BREX | ||
| Anysphere (Cursor) · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $761 | C | KXIPO-26-ANYSPHERE | ||
| Airwallex · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $389 | C | KXIPO-26-AIRWALLEX | ||
| xAI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $409 | C | KXIPO-26-XAI | ||
| Bloomberg · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXIPO-26-BMBG |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jersey Mike's confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the New York Times" sources (9)
the New York Times venue-listed ABC venue-listed Bloomberg venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Financial Times venue-listed CNBC venue-listed Reuters venue-listed BBC venue-listed the SEC from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Who will IPO in 2026? | kalshi | by 2027-01-01 | 99% |
| YES | Who will IPO before 2027? | kalshi | 2026-08-24 | 100% |
| YES | Who will IPO before 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-15 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Discord IPO pricing trades apart across the major prediction desks Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 16%
- Kalshi prices a Discord IPO before 2027 at 16%, Polymarket at 11%, a 5pp spread.
- Kalshi sits higher; Polymarket holds roughly 23x more cumulative volume, making it the more liquid reference.
- The gap likely reflects Kalshi's thinner book rather than a genuine information edge on either platform.
- Resolves YES only on a completed Discord IPO before Jan 1, 2027; no IPO filing is currently public.
- Discord IPO odds carry a premium on the smaller venue Polymarket 12% vs Kalshi 21%
- Kalshi at 21% vs Polymarket at 12%, a 9pp spread on a shared binary claim
- Kalshi is priced higher on a fraction of the volume Polymarket has absorbed
- Polymarket's deeper liquidity typically anchors closer to consensus; Kalshi's thinness leaves it prone to drift
- Resolves YES only on a completed Discord IPO before Jan 1, 2027
- Discord IPO odds carry a premium on the low-liquidity desk Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 17%
- Kalshi prices Discord IPO at 17%, Polymarket at 10%, a 7pp gap with the horizon closing in weeks.
- Kalshi is higher; Polymarket liquidity exceeds Kalshi's by more than 22x, giving it a stronger price-discovery base.
- With no public filing or S-1 signal, Polymarket's deeper market likely reflects consensus; Kalshi's premium may be noise from a thin participant pool.
- Resolves YES only on a completed IPO or direct listing before Jan 1, 2027.
- Discord IPO odds carry a premium on the lower-volume desk Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 18%
- Kalshi prices a Discord IPO before 2027 at 18%, Polymarket at 10%, an 8pp spread with the clock running.
- Kalshi is higher; Polymarket holds more than 20x the cumulative volume, anchoring the skeptical lean.
- Polymarket's volume-weighted 10% likely reflects the well-documented absence of any filed S-1 or public IPO timeline from Discord.
- Resolves YES only on a completed Discord IPO, not a filing or announced intention, before Jan 1, 2027.
- Discord IPO odds carry a premium on the smaller desk Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 22%
- Kalshi sits at 22%, Polymarket at 10%, a 12pp gap on the same before-2027 horizon
- Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket holds dominant liquidity at $481K+ vs $28K on Kalshi
- Polymarket's price is grounded in far greater participant depth; Kalshi's premium likely reflects low-volume noise rather than a genuine information edge
- Resolves YES only on a confirmed Discord IPO or direct listing before Jan 1, 2027
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxipo-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxipo-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxipo-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
"slug": "kxipo-26",
"question": "Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"ipo-announcements",
"corporate-finance",
"equity-markets",
"2026",
"public-companies"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 31,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 805593,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the SEC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}