Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 27 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerebras · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $55K | C | KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS | ||
| SpaceX · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | $2.9K | $294K | C | KXIPO-26-SPACEX | ||
| Anthropic · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 91.0% | $1.3K | $186K | C | KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC | ||
| Jersey Mike's · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 90.0% | — | $11K | C | KXIPO-26-JERS | ||
| OpenAI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 65.0% | $5.8K | $184K | C | KXIPO-26-OPENAI | ||
| Discord · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 60.0% | $928 | $57K | C | KXIPO-26-DISCORD | ||
| Kraken · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 46.0% | — | $50K | C | KXIPO-26-KRAKEN | ||
| Databricks · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | $853 | $40K | C | KXIPO-26-DAT…CKS | ||
| Ramp · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $5.0K | C | KXIPO-26-RAMP | ||
| Skims · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $1.0K | C | KXIPO-26-SKIMS | ||
| Plaid · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $6.0K | C | KXIPO-26-PLAID | ||
| Shein · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $0 | $1.5K | C | KXIPO-26-SHEIN | ||
| Stripe · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $8.7K | C | KXIPO-26-STRIPE | ||
| Beast Industries · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $9 | $1.3K | C | KXIPO-26-BEAS | ||
| Airwallex · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXIPO-26-AIRWALLEX | ||
| Deel · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $3.9K | C | KXIPO-26-DEEL | ||
| Applied Intuition · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $1.9K | C | KXIPO-26-AIN…ION | ||
| Glean · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $7 | $709 | C | KXIPO-26-GLEAN | ||
| Mistral AI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $464 | C | KXIPO-26-MISTRAL | ||
| Ripple Labs · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | $57 | $2.4K | C | KXIPO-26-RIPPLE | ||
| Rippling · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | $19 | $1.2K | C | KXIPO-26-RIPPLING | ||
| Anduril · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $11 | $18K | C | KXIPO-26-ANDURIL | ||
| Anysphere (Cursor) · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXIPO-26-ANYSPHERE | ||
| Vanta · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $476 | C | KXIPO-26-VANTA | ||
| xAI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $0 | $1.9K | C | KXIPO-26-XAI | ||
| Celonis · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $429 | C | KXIPO-26-CELONIS | ||
| Brex · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $657 | C | KXIPO-26-BREX |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jersey Mike's confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the New York Times" sources (9)
- the New York Times venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- CNBC venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- the SEC from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Who will IPO before 2027? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | 99% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Discord IPO before 2027 splits sharply across venues Polymarket 27% vs Kalshi 48%
- Kalshi prices 48%, Polymarket 27%, a 21pp spread on the same before-2027 horizon.
- Kalshi is the higher market; Polymarket carries the dominant liquidity at roughly 9x cumulative volume.
- Thin Kalshi volume may permit price distortion; Polymarket's deeper book likely reflects broader informed consensus.
- Resolution hinges on a confirmed Discord IPO filing or listing before Jan 1 2027.
- Deel IPO pricing decouples on the major prediction desks Polymarket 4% vs Kalshi 10%
- Kalshi sits at 10%, Polymarket at 4%, a 6pp gap on a low-probability before-2027 claim.
- Kalshi is the higher market; Polymarket holds roughly 37x the cumulative volume.
- At these low absolute levels, the percentage gap is proportionally large; Kalshi's thin book amplifies drift.
- Resolution requires a confirmed Deel IPO or listing event before Jan 1 2027.
- Discord IPO before 2027 splits sharply across venues Polymarket 30% vs Kalshi 43%
- Kalshi prices Discord IPO at 43%, Polymarket at 30%, a 13pp gap on the same horizon.
- Kalshi is the higher-side venue; Polymarket carries substantially deeper liquidity on this contract.
- Thin Kalshi volume may reflect a smaller, less-diversified crowd skewing optimistic on a 2026 IPO window.
- Resolution requires a completed Discord IPO filing or listing before Jan 1, 2027.
- Discord IPO timeline decouples on the major prediction desks Polymarket 35% vs Kalshi 46%
- Kalshi prices at 46%, Polymarket at 35%, an 11pp divergence on the same horizon.
- Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket holds roughly nine times the cumulative volume.
- Kalshi's retail-skewed audience may be over-pricing IPO optimism relative to Polymarket's larger, more active crowd.
- Resolves YES only on a completed public offering before Jan 1, 2027.
- SHEIN IPO pricing converges near consensus but isolates a seven-point gap Polymarket 85% vs Kalshi 78%
- Polymarket prices SHEIN IPO at 85%, Kalshi at 78%, a 7pp gap, with Polymarket the higher venue.
- Polymarket carries roughly 4.6x Kalshi's cumulative volume, lending weight to its higher price.
- Kalshi's discount may reflect greater sensitivity to regulatory or cross-border listing risk.
- Resolves YES on a completed SHEIN public offering before Jan 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxipo-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxipo-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxipo-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
"slug": "kxipo-26",
"question": "Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"ipo",
"corporate-announcements",
"2027",
"equity-markets",
"tech-and-finance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 27,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 934156,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the SEC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}