CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-01 ]

Who will IPO before 2027?

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 31 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Shein · Who will IPO before 2027? 2026-08-24 100.0%
— $27K
C KXIPO-26-SHEIN
Jersey Mike's · Who will IPO in 2026? 2027-01-01 99.0%
— $20K
C KXIPO-26-JERS
SpaceX · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 99.0%
— $312K
C KXIPO-26-SPACEX
Cerebras · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 99.0%
— $55K
C KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS
Anthropic · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 75.0%
$294 $195K
C KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC
Oura · Who will IPO in 2026? 2027-01-01 75.0%
$71 $2.5K
C KXIPO-26-OURA
Discord · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 38.0%
$74 $43K
C KXIPO-26-DISCORD
OpenAI · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 24.0%
$329 $88K
C KXIPO-26-OPENAI
DeepSeek · Who will IPO in 2026? 2027-01-01 15.0%
— $369
C KXIPO-26-DEEP
Kraken · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 14.0%
— $18K
C KXIPO-26-KRAKEN
Gopuff · Who will IPO in 2026? 2027-01-01 11.0%
— $129
C KXIPO-26-GOPU
Applied Intuition · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 9.0%
— $2.2K
C KXIPO-26-AIN…ION
Plaid · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 8.0%
— $3.6K
C KXIPO-26-PLAID
Celonis · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 7.0%
$16 $1.1K
C KXIPO-26-CELONIS
Deel · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 7.0%
— $2.5K
C KXIPO-26-DEEL
Mistral AI · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 7.0%
— $421
C KXIPO-26-MISTRAL
Ramp · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 7.0%
$1 $2.1K
C KXIPO-26-RAMP
Rippling · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 7.0%
— $990
C KXIPO-26-RIPPLING
Glean · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 7.0%
— $522
C KXIPO-26-GLEAN
Beast Industries · Who will IPO in 2026? 2027-01-01 6.0%
— $903
C KXIPO-26-BEAS
Vanta · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 6.0%
$3 $623
C KXIPO-26-VANTA
Ripple Labs · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 6.0%
$3 $1.8K
C KXIPO-26-RIPPLE
Skims · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 6.0%
— $453
C KXIPO-26-SKIMS
Stripe · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 6.0%
— $4.4K
C KXIPO-26-STRIPE
Databricks · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 5.0%
$3 $11K
C KXIPO-26-DAT…CKS
Anduril · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 4.0%
$0 $9.9K
C KXIPO-26-ANDURIL
Brex · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 3.0%
— $667
C KXIPO-26-BREX
Anysphere (Cursor) · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 3.0%
— $761
C KXIPO-26-ANYSPHERE
Airwallex · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 3.0%
— $389
C KXIPO-26-AIRWALLEX
xAI · Who will IPO before 2027? 2027-01-01 1.0%
— $409
C KXIPO-26-XAI
Bloomberg · Who will IPO in 2026? 2027-01-01 0.0%
— — C KXIPO-26-BMBG
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff the New York Times not provided Kalshi Staff Other —
verbatim rules
kalshi 31 markets · share this text
If Jersey Mike's confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the New York Times"
sources (9)
the New York Times venue-listed ABC venue-listed Bloomberg venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Financial Times venue-listed CNBC venue-listed Reuters venue-listed BBC venue-listed the SEC from rules text
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Who will IPO in 2026? kalshi by 2027-01-01 99%
YES Who will IPO before 2027? kalshi 2026-08-24 100%
YES Who will IPO before 2027? kalshi 2026-06-15 99%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
  • 2026-10-20T13:16:32+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Discord IPO odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 13%
    • Kalshi prices Discord IPO before 2027 at 13%; Polymarket at 6%, a 7pp gap with under 10 weeks left on the clock.
    • Kalshi sits higher on thin volume; Polymarket holds the lower price against dramatically deeper liquidity.
    • Polymarket's larger pool likely reflects broader consensus, Kalshi's premium may stem from a smaller, less contested market with fewer arbitrageurs.
    • Resolves YES if Discord completes an IPO on a public exchange before Jan 1, 2027.
  • 2026-10-20T07:49:00+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Discord IPO odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 15%
    • Kalshi prices Discord IPO before 2027 at 15%; Polymarket at 6%, a 9pp gap with under 10 weeks to resolution.
    • Kalshi sits higher with roughly $21K cumulative volume; Polymarket carries the deeper book at ~$491K.
    • Thin Kalshi liquidity may leave that 15% price poorly anchored; Polymarket's larger pool likely reflects a more tested consensus.
    • Resolves YES if Discord completes a public offering before Jan 1, 2027.
  • 2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Discord IPO odds split sharply across venues heading into 2027 Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 12%
    • Kalshi prices a Discord IPO before 2027 at 12%, Polymarket at 6%, a 6pp gap on a low-baseline event.
    • Kalshi sits at the higher price on far thinner volume; Polymarket's price is anchored by nearly $491K in cumulative liquidity.
    • Polymarket's deep, well-trafficked market is generally considered the more credible signal on high-profile corporate events with clear binary resolution.
    • Resolution requires a completed Discord public offering, listing date before January 1, 2027, leaving fewer than 78 days on the clock.
  • 2026-10-13T15:33:55+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Discord IPO odds split across venues heading into year-end Polymarket 8% vs Kalshi 15%
    • Kalshi sits at 15% and Polymarket at 8%, a 7pp gap on the same pre-2027 IPO claim.
    • Kalshi is the higher-priced venue; Polymarket holds dominant liquidity at $490K+ vs Kalshi's $20K.
    • The gap likely reflects audience differences and limited arbitrage incentive given Kalshi's small pool, not a genuine edge on IPO timing.
    • Resolution requires a confirmed Discord public listing on a major exchange before January 1, 2027.
  • 2026-10-12T17:18:52+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Discord IPO timeline splits sharply across the major prediction desks Polymarket 8% vs Kalshi 14%
    • Kalshi prices Discord IPO by end-2026 at 14%; Polymarket prices it at 8%, a 6pp spread.
    • Kalshi reads higher on $18,980 cumulative volume; Polymarket's 8% is backed by $490,654, roughly 26× deeper.
    • Polymarket's heavily traded 8% is the stronger signal; Kalshi's thin book likely overstates the probability due to low price discovery.
    • Resolution requires a completed IPO or equivalent public listing event before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxipo-26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxipo-26
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxipo-26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "slug": "kxipo-26",
  "question": "Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "ipo-announcements",
    "corporate-finance",
    "equity-markets",
    "2026",
    "public-companies"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 31,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 805593,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 68,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "the New York Times",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "the New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Financial Times",
      "url": "https://www.ft.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNBC",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the SEC",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →