Will Iran become a democracy by 2026? [ resolves 2027-05-30 (299D) ]
Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition?
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at… | 2027-05-30 | 4.5% | $5 | $13K | B | KXIRANDEMOCR…-T6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (3) · single authority
the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index committed source EIU Democracy Index 2026 report from rules text
recent wire items
- Iran becoming a democracy by 2026 remains near zero odds Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi prices only 3% odds on Iran becoming a democracy by 2026, resolving via the Statistical Review of World Energy, with trading volume up 7,733% day-over-day.
- The massive volume surge signals the ongoing Iran war headlines are driving fresh attention to this contract, even as the probability stays near zero.
- Active US-Israel military operations against Iran, including drone strikes near Riyadh and ship attacks off the UAE, are wholly inconsistent with a near-term democratic transition.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy; the choice of resolution source introduces ambiguity since energy data publications do not typically certify regime change.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxirandemocracy-27mar01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxirandemocracy-27mar01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxirandemocracy-27mar01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SM21RS13V3",
"slug": "kxirandemocracy-27mar01",
"question": "Will Iran become a democracy by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"iran-politics",
"democracy-index",
"governance-transition",
"middle-east",
"eiu-metrics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13231,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "EIU Democracy Index 2026 report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}