Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI in July be above 50? [ resolves 2026-09-02 (41D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026 | 2026-09-02 | 81.0% | — | $534 | A | KXISMPMI-26JUL-51 | ||
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026 | 2026-09-02 | 82.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXISMPMI-26JUL-52 | ||
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026 | 2026-09-02 | 57.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXISMPMI-26JUL-53 | ||
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026 | 2026-09-02 | 45.0% | — | $845 | A | KXISMPMI-26JUL-54 | ||
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026 | 2026-09-02 | 18.0% | — | $354 | A | KXISMPMI-26JUL-55 | ||
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026 | 2026-09-02 | 11.0% | — | $318 | A | KXISMPMI-26JUL-56 | ||
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026 | 2026-09-02 | 4.0% | — | $48 | A | KXISMPMI-26JUL-57 | ||
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026 | 2026-09-02 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXISMPMI-26JUL-58 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ISM | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 51, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ISM" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- ISM source of record venue-listed
- ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxismpmi-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxismpmi-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxismpmi-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-04Z803HFX1",
"slug": "kxismpmi-26jul",
"question": "Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI in July be above 50?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"ism-manufacturing-pmi",
"economic-indicators",
"us-manufacturing",
"july-2026",
"pmi-index"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5486,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ISM",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISM",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ISM",
"url": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}