Who will win the next Israeli legislative election? [ resolves 2026-10-27 (146D) ]
Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud · Who will win the next Israeli legislative election? | 2026-10-27 | 52.0% | — | $6.6K | C | KXISRAELKNES…LIK | ||
| Will Together win the next Israeli legislative election | 2026-10-27 | 38.0% | $145 | $1.3K | C | KXISRAELKNES…OGE | ||
| Yesh Atid · Who will win the next Israeli legislative election? | 2026-10-27 | 6.0% | — | $60 | C | KXISRAELKNES…ATI | ||
| Will Yashar win the next Israeli legislative election | 2026-10-27 | 5.0% | — | $27 | C | KXISRAELKNES…YAS | ||
| Will Bennett 2026 win the next Israeli legislative election | 2026-10-27 | 1.1% | — | $418 | C | KXISRAELKNES…BEN | ||
| National Unity · Who will win the next Israeli legislative election? | 2026-10-27 | 1.0% | — | $3 | C | KXISRAELKNES…UNI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election in 2026 is Likud, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary or legislative election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxisraelknesset-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxisraelknesset-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxisraelknesset-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DHTJ7K1463",
"slug": "kxisraelknesset-26",
"question": "Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"israeli-politics",
"legislative-elections",
"knesset",
"2027",
"parliamentary-government"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8452,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}