Federal judges confirmed, July 2026 [ resolved 2026-08-01 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 1 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 100.0% | — | $4.3K | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-0 | ||
| Will at least 2 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 100.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-1 | ||
| Will at least 3 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 100.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-2 | ||
| Will at least 4 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 100.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-3 | ||
| Will at least 5 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 100.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-4 | ||
| Will at least 6 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 100.0% | $98 | $1.1K | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-5 | ||
| Will at least 7 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 100.0% | $488 | $2.4K | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-6 | ||
| Will at least 8 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $390 | $3.7K | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-7 | ||
| Will at least 9 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | — | $5 | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-8 | ||
| 10 | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | — | $2 | A | KXJUDGECOUNT…L-9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If above 0 federal judges are confirmed after Jul 1, 2026 and before Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The positions that are eligible for inclusion are:
Supreme Court justices
Court of Federal Claims judges
U.S. Court of Appeals judges
U.S. District Court (including territorial courts) judges
Judges for the following courts are NOT included:
U.S. Court of International Trade
U.S. Tax Court
U.S. Court of Appeals for Veterans Claims
U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces
U.S. Court of Military Commission Review
District of Columbia local courts (D.C. Court of Appeals and Superior Court of the District of Columbia)
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will at least 1 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will at least 2 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will at least 3 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will at least 4 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will at least 5 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will at least 6 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will at least 7 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| NO | Will at least 8 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will at least 9 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will at least 10 judges be confirmed in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxjudgecount-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxjudgecount-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxjudgecount-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZJS3DBQLM4",
"slug": "kxjudgecount-26jul",
"question": "Federal judges confirmed, July 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"federal-judges",
"us-judicial-confirmations",
"senate-confirmation",
"2026",
"monthly-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19067,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}