Will there be a Los Angeles mayoral election by the specified date? [ resolved 2026-06-09 ]
Will Nithya Raman and Karen Bass be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?
kalshi: [A] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | $914 | $2.4K | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…PRA | ||
| Nithya Raman and Adam Miller | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…MIL | ||
| Nithya Raman and Rae Huang | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $13 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…HUN | ||
| Spencer Pratt and Adam Miller | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $9 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…MIL | ||
| Spencer Pratt and Rae Huang | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $28 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…HUA | ||
| Adam Miller and Rae Huang | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…HUA | ||
| Nithya Raman and Karen Bass | 2026-06-09 | 100.0% | $40K | $73K | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…BAS | ||
| Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | $258K | $510K | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…PRA | ||
| Karen Bass and Adam Miller | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | — | $4 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…MIL | ||
| Karen Bass and Rae Huang | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | — | $4 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…HUA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Nithya Raman and Karen Bass advance in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Nithya Raman (USELECTION), Karen Bass (USELECTION). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Nithya Raman and Karen Bass be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 100% |
| NO | Will Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Karen Bass and Adam Miller be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Karen Bass and Rae Huang be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Adam Miller and Rae Huang be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Spencer Pratt and Rae Huang be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Spencer Pratt and Adam Miller be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nithya Raman and Rae Huang be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nithya Raman and Adam Miller be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (10 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Market defends Bass-Pratt as the confirmed LA mayor ballot 79% · $258K 24h
- 79% price mirrors the Bass win market, consistent cross-contract confidence in the matchup.
- $258K in 24h is 51% of all-time volume, marking a decisive inflection in contract engagement.
- Alignment with the mayoral win market at identical odds suggests coordinated positioning.
- Resolves on official certification of both candidates as the general election nominees.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlamayormatchup-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlamayormatchup-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlamayormatchup-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5D13MHJ4R8",
"slug": "kxlamayormatchup-26jun",
"question": "Will there be a Los Angeles mayoral election by the specified date?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"los-angeles-mayor",
"2027-election",
"primary-matchup",
"california-politics",
"nominee-selection"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 586155,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}